Largish sale from GLD but gold price still consolidating

 Gold Today –New York closed at $1,281.20 yesterday after closing at $1,279.20 Wednesday. London opened at $1,281.00 today. 

Overall the dollar was stronger against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was stronger at $1.0695 after yesterday’s $1.0766: €1.

         The Dollar index was stronger at 99.94 after yesterday’s 99.46

         The Yen was weaker at 109.18 after yesterday’s 109.03:$1. 

         The Yuan was weaker at 6.8867 after yesterday’s 6.8837: $1. 

         The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2787 after yesterday’s $1.2833: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    4    21

     2017    4    20

     2017    4    19    

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

285.30

286.11

/

285.23

285.75

$ equivalent 1oz @    $1: 6.8867

       $1: 6.8837

       $1: 6.8854

      

  /

$1,289.11

$1,292.45

/

$1,288.79

$1,290.8

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 The Shanghai Gold Exchange was trading at 285.10 towards the close today. This translates into $1,282.64.

All three global gold markets are in line with each other. At this moment in time, we don’t see that the three are leading or following each other, but the closeness of prices tells us that arbitrageurs are doing a very professional job of smoothing out the gold markets across the world. New York closed $1.44 below Shanghai’s closing yesterday and today. London opened at a $1.46 discount to Shanghai in line with New York. This is the closest we have ever seen them.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA a.m. gold price was set today at $1,281.50 from yesterday’s $1,279.90.  

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,198.00 after yesterday’s €1,191.05.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,284.15 and in the euro at €1,200.59. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.99. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $18.01 yesterday after $18.14 at New York’s close Wednesday.

 Price Drivers

The dollar is recovering against other currencies today with gold rising in the dollar. Technically gold is sitting on support, while still consolidating.

France

With the French elections taking place this weekend, after another terror attack the mood in the world remains dark. The French polls are reminding us of the polls before the U.S. election, so we do not rate their abilities too highly. There is always a danger that we get so used to the dark side of the world that it becomes a ‘new normal’ but we do expect such attacks [in Paris today] to affect voters in France. Next week could see two euro-skeptics in the run-off for the Presidency.

Expectations too high

Currency markets are behaving in an unpredictable fashion at the moment as are markets.

Equity markets are too high and not for the right reasons as the U.S. recovery is still moderate and not such that gives rise to the current record highs we are seeing. Likewise in Europe with its tentative recovery. The IMF has increased its forecasts for the coming years. We would like to see more reasons and sustainability before endorsing such opinions. There are too many potential events that could disturb such a positive picture. What we do draw from the global scene is that the environment remains positive for gold.

China

When we see China reporting an increasingly robust economy we see a nation that is doing its best to be a separately, self-sustaining economy with supplies coming from countries not under U.S. influence. We do not see the U.S. and China working interdependently with each other in the future. China will walk its own road.

Russia

Russia continues to publicize the gold it buys, with last month’s purchases just below 25 tonnes. We do believe that China continues to build up its reserves in its institutions and through its agencies, but for whatever reason, has decided not to be open about this.

Gold ETFs

Yesterday saw sales of 6.513 tonnes from the SPDR gold ETF but no change in the Gold Trust. Their holdings are now at 854.25 tonnes and at 204.36 tonnes respectively.

Since January 6th 2017 47.20 tonnes have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust.

Julian D.W. Phillips 

GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold jumps on US missile strike

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,251.70 yesterday after closing at $1,256.10 Tuesday. London opened at $1,264.00 today. 

Overall the dollar was slightly stronger against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was stronger at $1.0638 after yesterday’s $1.0664: €1.

         The Dollar index was stronger at 100.71 after yesterday’s 100.60

         The Yen was stronger at 110.65 after yesterday’s 110.77:$1. 

         The Yuan was slightly stronger at 6.8992 after yesterday’s 6.8995: $1. 

         The Pound Sterling was slightly weaker at $1.2465 after yesterday’s $1.2475: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    4      7

     2017    4      6

     2017    4      5    

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

280.38

280.13

/

280.42

280.13

$ equivalent 1oz @    $1: 6.8992

       $1: 6.8995

       $1: 6.8892

      

  /

$1,263.97

$1,264.24

/

$1,264.15

$1,264.28

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 Gold was trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange at RMB282.24 towards the close.

This translates into $1,267.41. New York is trading at a $15.71 discount to Shanghai and London opened at a $3.41 discount to Shanghai. The close in New York was before the missile strikes in Syria.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,264.30 from yesterday’s $1,253.75.  

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,189.37 after yesterday’s €1,174.58.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,262.70 and in the euro at €1,188.09. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $18.35. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $18.23 yesterday after $18.30 at New York’s close Wednesday.

Price Drivers

Overnight, the U.S. struck Syria with cruise missiles on President Trump’s order. The global political situation has degenerated, at least for now, causing gold to jump through the 200-day average. Will this hold? At first glance, we would think not, as it is not a cause for war between Russia and the U.S. simply a punitive strike, in response to the use of chemical weapons in what is more than a civil war in Syria. It is, to us, a long term middle east wide religious war between Shia [Assad/Iran, etc] and Sunni [rebels/Saudis, etc] sides of Islam set to continue for the foreseeable future.

The initial market reaction is to see it as the beginning of another longer term U.S. operation in the Middle East, but we expect markets to calm down as they see it as a one-off strike. Gold and silver are likely to retreat as matters calm down, but how far?

However, if gold does hold at current levels today, over $1,260, then the 200-day average will prove to be support and prices likely to rise.

With the Jobs report out today in the U.S. we may see efforts to pull gold and silver prices back. The news that the U.S. economy is strong is discounted in the market, perhaps too much so. As the Fed warned of overvaluations in equity markets it is possible the Jobs report has no effect on gold and silver prices.

Thus today could be a volatile day for precious metals as there is a lot of emotional content right now.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday saw no purchases or sales into or from the SPDR gold ETF but purchases of 0.45 into the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 836.765 tonnes and 200.26 tonnes. 

Julian D.W. Phillips 

 GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold holding higher levels. Set for a further rise?

Gold Today –New York closed at $$1,255.30 yesterday and at 1,247.90 on the 24th March, after closing at $1,246.20 on the 23rd March. London opened at $1,253.00 today. 

Overall the dollar was mixed against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was unchanged at $1.0863: €1 from $1.0798: €1 Friday.

         The Dollar index was slightly stronger at 99.17 from 99.73 Friday. 

         The Yen was slightly weaker at 110.29:$1 from Friday’s 111.20 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was stronger at 6.8804: $1, from 6.8877: $1, Friday. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2554: £1 from Friday’s $1.2490: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix

Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    3    28

     2017    3    27       2017    3    24

    2017     3   23

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

280.04

277.99

277.93

/

280.61

277.94

278.38

$ equivalent 1oz @    $1: 6.8804

      $1: 6.8758

      $1: 6.8877

 $1: 6.8860

  /

$1,266.79

$1,255.35

$1,255.39

/

$1,267.18

$1,257.12

$1,257.42

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was standing at Yuan 280.60, which directly translates into $1,268.48. But allowing for the difference in fineness of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,263.48. This more than $8.18 higher than the New York close and $10.48 higher than London.

Shanghai is steady at higher levels today as the Trump/Republican defeat continues to be digested. As you can see there was a $15 jump in the price yesterday, which we expect to filter through to London and New York this week.  The margins are more than enough for arbitrageurs to profit from, so the process may be quick.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,253.65 from Friday’s $1,244.00.  

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,154.01 after Friday’s €1,151.53.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,257.55 and in the euro at €1,157.75. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $18.16. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $18.10 at New York’s close yesterday against $17.74 on the 24th March.

Price Drivers

With the failure of Trump and the Republicans to pass the repeal of the Obamacare bill Friday makes this week a week of digestion of the fact and reaction to it.

For gold, before London opened on Monday Shanghai had already reacted through the western night. It was at $1,257 when we first looked during Shanghai’s day on Monday and is currently holding that level now.   If it holds above $1,250 it will have broken through overhead resistance, which will become support, which appears to be happening now.

This week see the monthly options expiry which while being a short term influence demonstrates the net long or short position of the paper market. It looks as if we will see higher gold prices from it as the short and longs net out.

The Healthcare Bill is not just about healthcare or about Donald Trump but about the ability of the Republican majority to turn what has been political gridlock for the last two terms into decisive government. Because the bill failed to pass the markets are confirming our view that despite the hype about President Trump’s ‘get things done’ ability, the government remains in political gridlock, with the majority disunited. We expect him to switch to election promises that he believes will pass to he can regain some lost political momentum.

We are seeing a lower dollar and expect lower equities in the days to come [where the rise since his election accounts for 14% of the rise in the Dow] and higher gold.

Gold ETFs – Friday saw purchases 0f 1.776 tonnes into the SPDR gold ETF and purchases yesterday of 2.665 tonnes but no change in the holdings of the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 835.285 tonnes and 198.72 tonnes. 

 Julian D.W. Phillips 

 GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance

Shanghai now the world’s gold hub

 

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,244.60 yesterday after closing at $1,234.60 on the 20th March. London opened at $1,247.00 today. 

Overall the dollar was weaker against all global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was weaker at $1.0802: €1 from $1.0793: €1 yesterday.

         The Dollar index was weaker at 99.77 from 100.06 yesterday. 

         The Yen was stronger at 111.48:$1 from yesterday’s 112.86 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was stronger at 6.8845: $1, from 6.8968: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2472: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2380: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    3    22

     2017    3    21       2017    3    20

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

275.97

276.75

/

275.98

276.93

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8845

      $1: 6.8968

$1: 6.9051

  /

$1,244.58

$1,246.60

/

$1,244.62

$1,247.41

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was trading at 278.50 Yuan, which directly translates into $1,258.23. But allowing for the difference of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,253.23. This more than $13.63 higher than the New York close and $6.23 higher than London.

The gold price in Shanghai jumped 2.50 Yuan today, but the rise was greater when translated into the weak dollar. As you can see, London and New York are trying to catch up with Shanghai as the price differentials narrow.  That’s why the concept of a ‘Chinese gold price premium’ distorts the reality of what’s happening. China is no longer a distant sub-market of London, while India continues to be so, as that country with its gold taxes and political interference cannot function nearly as well as Shanghai with its highly developed, huge, physical market. As we have pointed out in the past, Shanghai has become the world’s gold hub. It would therefore be more accurate as description to describe New York and London trading at a ‘discount’ to Shanghai.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,246.10 up from yesterday’s $1,232.05.  

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,154.76 after yesterday’s €1,139.94.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,245.45 and in the euro at €1,154.58 At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.49. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.52 at New York’s close yesterday against $17.42 on the 20th March. Silver prices continue rising but not quite as fast as gold’s dollar prices.

Price Drivers

Gold is responding to a weak dollar, but also to buying by the U.S.

Chinese demand kicked in overnight too, helping the gold price rise. Chinese continues to dominate gold prices pulling gold prices higher in the developed world.

The wave of euphoria after the election of Trump in the U.S. and world markets is faltering. U.S. equity markets are pulling back as the promised ‘firing from the hip’ at the establishment alongside huge tax cuts and infrastructure spending, have not yet happened. With President Trump finding it hard going to do away with Obamacare, the potential hurdles that lie ahead look like slowing down his program and markets are responding to that. The dollar is slipping through support and may well go much lower.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday saw purchases of 4.145 tonnes into the SPDR gold ETF but no change in the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 834.396 tonnes and 197.82 tonnes. 

Since January 4th 2016, 231.186 tonnes of gold have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.  Since January 6th 2017 21.13 tonnes have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust.

 Julian D.W. Phillips – GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

 

3.85 tonne withdrawal from GLD has little gold pricing effect

 Gold Today –New York closed at $1,234.60 yesterday after closing at $1,228.80 on the 17th March. London opened at $1,231.70 today. 

Overall the dollar was weaker against all global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was weaker at $1.0793: €1 from $1.0765: €1 yesterday.

         The Dollar index was weaker at 100.06 from 100.16 yesterday. 

         The Yen was weaker at 112.86:$1 from yesterday’s 112.74 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was stronger at 6.8968: $1, from 6.9051: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2380: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2419: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    3    21

     2017    3    20       2017    3    17

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

276.75

275.49

/

276.93

275.78

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8968

      $1: 6.9051

$1: 6.9068

  /

$1,246.60

$1,240.62

/

$1,247.41

$1,241.92

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was trading at 276.50 Yuan, which directly translates into $1,246.97. But allowing for the difference of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,241.97. This more than $12.37 higher than the New York close and $10.27 higher than London.

The price differential between the three centers is narrowing again as China continues to dominate gold prices. Even a nearly 4 tonne sale from the SPDR gold ETF did not change U.S. prices. As you can see above, Shanghai’s gold prices are steady at higher levels uninfluenced by London or New York at the moment.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,232.05 down from yesterday’s $1,233.00.  

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,139.94 after yesterday’s €1,146.34.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,233.15 and in the euro at €1,141.07 At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.43. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.42 at New York’s close yesterday against $17.38 on the 17th March. Silver prices continue rising slowly in line with gold’s dollar prices.

Price Drivers

Turning back to the G-20 statement we note that the G-20 maintained its call for competitive devaluations and FX market instability to be avoided. While it goes against brazen devaluations for the sake of gaining competitive advantage, protectionism will alter trade balances, which will affect exchange rates. Behind such international plays, nations do attempt to keep their exchange rates low and lower. So while brazen currency wars are to be avoided, they will continue indirectly. Hence, the concerns surrounding trade with the G-20 statement calling for protectionism to be resisted not included in the statement

Markets are still expecting the enormous policy implementation of new tax rates and infrastructure spending. These are certain to have far more impact on global financial markets than any policy decisions President Trump has made to date. Likewise any implementation of Trade tariffs. These will ripple out and over precious metal markets. At this point ahead of these announcements we see them being positive for gold.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday saw sales of 3.849 tonnes from the SPDR gold ETF (GLD) but no change in the Gold Trust (IAU).  Their respective holdings are now at 830.251 tonnes and 197.82 tonnes. 

 Julian D.W. Phillips –  GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold soars post-Fed. Dollar falls back

 Gold Today –New York closed at $1,220.00 on the 15th March after closing at $1,198.70 on the 14th March. London opened at $1,224.15 today. 

Overall the dollar was weaker against all global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was weaker at $1.0709: €1 from $1.0623: €1 yesterday.

         The Dollar index was weaker at 100.72 from 101.58 yesterday. 

         The Yen was stronger at 113.44:$1 from yesterday’s 114.65 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was stronger at 6.8967: $1, from 6.9124: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2266: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2195: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    3    16

     2017    3    15       2017    3    14

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

270.98

272.05

/

271.58

271.47

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8967

      $1: 6.9124

$1: 6.9137

  /

$1,219.32

$1,223.90

/

$1,222.02

$1,221.29

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was trading at 275.50 Yuan, which directly translates into $1,242.48. But allowing for the difference of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,237.48. This more than $17.48 higher than the New York close and $13.33 higher than London.

With arbitrage opportunities wide open between Shanghai and New York/London we see Shanghai pulling gold out of them. Dealers in London and New York ignored the decent tonnages being bought into the U.S. based gold ETFs recently and held prices down. We expect this to change in the days to come.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,225.60 down from yesterday’s $1,202.25.  

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,142.64 after Friday’s €1,131.85.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,227.15 and in the euro at €1,144.14 At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.49. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.31 at New York’s close yesterday against $16.88 on the 14th March.

 Price Drivers

As we said yesterday, “One of the dangers of getting carried away by the early days of a new President is that markets can run too far and ahead of the realities facing that President. This may well prove to be the case with the sell-off in gold of late…..” The Fed has not joined in that exuberance, instead of just raising interest rates by 0.25% but making dovish statements that while a total of 3 rate hikes can be expected this year, the Fed will maintain its accommodative stance. This disappointed many markets sending equity markets higher [because the fear of much higher rates in the future has dissipated] and the dollar lower against all currencies. Gold benefitted and traded higher, but the digestion of the Fed’s speech leaves more gold price rises to come.

At the same time, President Trump announced major spending cuts but a major expansion of defense spending. We still await his announcements on infrastructure spending which will bring growth but at the expense of inflation and deficit spending. At the moment inflation is reported by government agencies at being close to 2%. This leaves rates negative.

What is expected around the autumn is a signal by the Fed that it will slow its re-investment policies in Treasuries as a start to improving the Fed’s Balance Sheet. This could take 10-year Treasuries to 3.10%. If they don’t it is expected 10-year Treasuries will end the year around 2.6%. We expect that by that time inflation will be higher than Treasury 10-year yields, which is positive for U.S. gold buying.

Over in Europe, the fear of a popularism victory in Holland has gone, as the previous government looks as though it will keep ruling there. The voter turnout was huge leading many to believe that both in France and Germany similar election results will be achieved. We would be cautious about that conclusion. We don’t expect France to be that liberal. But we don’t see markets discounting a Le Pen victory or a Merkel defeat. Nevertheless, those ‘winds of change’ continue to blow!

Gold ETFs – Yesterday saw purchases of 4.442 tonnes into the SPDR gold ETF but no change in the holdings of the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 839.431 tonnes and 197.22 tonnes. 

Julian D.W. Phillips – GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold moves back above $1,200 despite positive jobs report

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,201.90 on the 9th March after closing at $1,208.70 on the 8th March. London opened at $1,197.00 today.

 Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was weaker at $1.0611: €1 from $1.0535: €1 yesterday.

         The Dollar index was stronger at 101.82 from 102.17 yesterday. 

         The Yen was weaker at 115.40:$1 from yesterday’s 114.50 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was weaker at 6.9160: $1, from 6.9113: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was barely changed at $1.2166: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2164: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    3    10

     2017    3    9

      2017    2    8

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

272.74

274.14

/

271.92

274.09

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.9160

      $1: 6.9113

$1: 6.9049

  /

$1,227.43

$1,242.23

/

$1,223.74

$1,242.18

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was trading at 270.9 Yuan once again, which directly translates into $1,218.32. But allowing for the difference of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,213.32. This was $11.42 higher than the New York close and $16.32 higher than London.

The demand for gold in Shanghai at the moment is not sufficient to lift its own prices let alone those of New York or London, as we see above. This is in the face of a weakening Yuan. The head of the People’s Bank of China stated that the Yuan exchange rate will remain stable going forward. We are always wary of central bank statements on exchange rates, because history shows that such statements are usually way off the mark. We can only summize that the PBoC is going to filter purchases of U.S. dollars for investment and maintain such capital / Exchange Controls to ensure strategic foreign purchases that favour China overall are permitted.  It is only in this way that the exchange rate of the Yuan can be managed. But will Chinese gold investors believe this?

The investments of Chinese capital that don’t meet these criteria are unlikely to be permitted. We believe that gold purchases from overseas are deemed of strategic benefit to China.

This will not prevent the expansion of Yuan usage in international trade from rising.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,196.55 down from yesterday’s $1,204.60.  

The gold price in the euro was set lower at €1,127.76 after yesterday’s €1,140.61.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,204.40 and in the euro at €1,130.79 At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.07. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $16.97 at New York’s close yesterday against $17.24 on the 7th March.

Price Drivers

The latest US Jobs report came out at a 235,000 increase in jobs following a 238,000 rise in January that was more than previously estimated, the best back-to-back rise since July. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, and wages grew 2.8% from February 2016. This is positive for U.S. future growth.  

It seems that once the numbers were out, the gold price recovered havig fallen overnight to below the pschologically importants $1,200 level, as it was no longer an awaited item. Rather like the expectation of an oil strike raised share values of a producer, but confirmation of expectations let the price fall. Likewise with the gold price!

In line with that, the dollar weakened too.

As you can see the gold price is falling faster in the euro than in the dollar at the moment as the euro strengthened. While Mario Draghi said little of significance yesterday he indicated that the easing policy would continue for a long time still.

Soft Chinese demand [waiting for the dollar to react?] contributed to this but so was dealer’s ‘marking down’ of the gold price. As you can see below the volumes of sales out of the U.S. based gold ETFs was not large enough to move prices, but, as we said yesterday in such a wary, buyer-sidelined market, it takes small volumes to move prices. So, it looks like we will see gold prices consolidate until the Fed speaks next week.

To get a feel for the market, we say that if a substantial buyer came in prices would move higher – disproportionately higher. The market is in a delicate position right now even after the jobs report, ahead of the Fed’s statement and probable rate rise next week.

The question now is, does this report imply four rate hikes, not just two. This was why the gold price was being marked down so much.  But Oriental physical gold demand is strong and likely to get stronger as we move up to April, the start of this year’s wedding season in India.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday saw sales of 2.665 tonnes from the SPDR gold ETF and 0.3 of a tonne from the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 834.101 tonnes and 197.22 tonnes. 

 

Since January 4th 2016, 230.291 tonnes of gold have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.  Since January 6th 2017 20.21 tonnes have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust.

 Julian D.W. Phillips – GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold takes a step back

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,251.50 on the 28th February after closing at $1,251.00 on the 27th February. London opened at $1,244.00 today.

 Overall the dollar was stronger against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was stronger at $1.0557: €1 from $1.0593: €1 on yesterday.

         The Dollar index was stronger at 101.57 from 101.09 on yesterday. 

         The Yen was weaker at 113.45:$1 from yesterday’s 112.44 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was weaker at 6.8783: $1, from 6.8689: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2373: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2427: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix

Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    3    1

     2017    2    28

      2017    2    27

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

279.66

280.67

/

279.65

280.57

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8783

      $1: 6.8689

$1: 6.8800

  /

$1,266.35

$1,268.87

/

$1,266.30

$1,268.42

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was trading at 279.50 Yuan once again, which directly translates into $1,263.89. But allowing for the difference of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,258.89. This is $7.39 higher than the New York close and $14.89 higher than London.

President Trump’s speech was a patriotic call mainly but lacked sufficient details to move markets significantly. We expect London and New York to move back up towards the Shanghai price in the next few days in line with dollar moves.  But gold got hit by statements from various US Fed officials which raised the likelihood of an interest rate rise as soon as this month.  The FOMC meets on March 14-15.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,246.05 down from yesterday’s $1,251.90.  The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,182.21 after yesterday’s €1,181.15.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,245.05 and in the euro at €1,181.26.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $18.35. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $18.34 at New York’s close yesterday against $18.23 on the 27th February.

Price Drivers

Before London’s opening the gold price was moved down by $8 from New York’s close. This sort of move is not unusual and can easily be reversed. With the Trump speech a patriotic rallying cry, but lacking in specific details the U.S. markets are relatively unmoved. We expect a similar reaction in the gold price but being seen in a recovery of the price to levels from which it has fallen in the last day.What he did state was that the government will spend $1 trillion to boost growth in the U.S. and provide jobs for Americans. This is a vast number that will be paid for by more debt. For anyone to properly assess Trump’s plans they need to have details of his Tax cuts. He tells us the cuts will be huge. We expect the market to react by weakening the dollar, over time, and to favour gold, over time, in the U.S. as U.S. debt becomes excessive. We are already seeing foreign investors begin to shy away from investing in U.S. Treasuries.

India

India’s February imports of gold surged in February to 50 tonnes, up more than 82% from a year ago, on pent-up jeweler demand and as retail consumers ramped up purchases for weddings.

The rise in imports by the world’s second-biggest consumer of the precious metal will support global prices that had been trading near their highest level in 3-1/2 months.

 

India’s gold imports had fallen to 27.4 tonnes in February 2016 as buyers postponed purchases in anticipation of a reduction in the import duty in the budget at the time.

This February, retail demand improved as cash supplies moved to the normal levels before de-monetization.

 

Gold ETFs – Yesterday saw no sales or purchases from or into the SPDR gold ETF but a purchase of 0.41 of a tonne into the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 841.169 tonnes and 202.24 tonnes.   Once the markets have digested the Trump speech, we may well see activity increase.

 Julian D.W. Phillips 

 GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold waits to be Trumped

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,251.00 on the 27th February after closing at $1,256.70 on the 24th February. London opened at $1,251.70 today.

 Overall the dollar was slightly weaker against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was slightly stronger at $1.0593: €1 from $1.0586: €1 on yesterday.

         The Dollar index was slightly stronger at 101.09 from 101.06 on yesterday. 

         The Yen was slightly weaker at 112.44:$1 from yesterday’s 112.30 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was stronger at 6.8689: $1, from 6.8800: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was slightly stronger at $1.2427: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2412: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix

Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    2    28

     2017    2    27

      2017    2    24

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

280.67

278.49

/

280.57

279.76

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8689

      $1: 6.8800

$1: 6.8717

  /

$1,268.87

$1,260.53

/

$1,268.42

$1,266.28

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was trading at 280.0 Yuan once again, which directly translates into $1,267.88. But allowing for the difference of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,262.88. This is $11.88 higher than the New York close and $11.18 higher than London.

If Trump’s speech is positive for gold then we should see the price in New York rise to meet the Shanghai price, at least.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,251.90 down from yesterday’s $1,256.25.  

The gold price in the euro was set lower at €1,181.15 after yesterday’s €1,185.02.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,252.70 and in the euro at €1,182.02.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $18.28. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $18.23 at New York’s close yesterday against $18.35 on the 24th February.

Price Drivers

Later today in the U.S. we await President Trump’s speech before Congress. We are told he will raise defense spending by $54 billion, but of more importance to the gold price will be any mention of infrastructure spending or any indication of tax cuts. These will directly affect the dollar against other currencies as well as the dollar gold price.

As you can see most developed world markets are marking time until they hear what he proposes. But note that Shanghai has not marked time, but moved slightly higher reflecting the fundamentals of the gold market, leaving New York and now London pulling back ahead of his speech. Today may well show in both London and New York much higher volatility in the very short term. Thereafter the currency and gold world in the west will settle down and follow Shanghai again. This is where Shanghai’s new dominance over the gold price will show itself.

The previous statements from President Trump pointed to much greater debt and likely inflation in his attempts to promote growth. Being a media master, we may well see him make today’s speech dramatic by encompassing his fiscal and taxation measures at the same time as he mentions defense and infrastructure. It will be these that impact the dollar and gold as well as silver, the metal that follows gold, ‘wherever she shall go.’ On balance we expect his speech to benefit gold, when the dust settles.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday saw no sales or purchases from or into the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 841.169 tonnes and 201.82 tonnes. These gold ETFs have been quiet in the last week or so. After today we may well see activity increase. But will investors sell or buy? Today may well point the way forward.

 Julian D.W. Phillips 

 GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold price measuring the value of currencies – not vice versa

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,236.30 on the 21st February after closing at $1,239.00 on the 20th February. London opened at $1,235.00 today.

 Overall the dollar was stronger against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was stronger at $1.0505: €1 from $1.0558: €1 on yesterday.

         The Dollar index was stronger at 101.59 from 101.37 on yesterday. 

         The Yen was stronger at 113.32:$1 from yesterday’s 113.56 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was stronger at 6.8818: $1, from 6.8866: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2491: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2423: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    2    22

     2017    2    21

      2017    2    20

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

275.57

274.98

/

275.19

275.04

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8818

      $1: 6.8866

$1: 6.8783

  /

$1,244.62

$1,243.45

/

$1,242.90

$1,243.72

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was trading at 275.8 Yuan, which directly translates into $1,246.53. But allowing for the difference of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,241.53. This is $5 higher than New York and $1 higher than London. We watch to see if London and New York continue to follow Shanghai or not.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,237.50 up from yesterday’s $1,228.70.  

The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,177.79 after yesterday’s €1,166.30.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,237.70 and in the euro at €1,177.51.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $18.00. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.98 at New York’s close yesterday against $18.03 on the 20th February.

Price Drivers

With the gold price still struggling to break through $1,240 – $1,250 we expect the price to keep pushing higher against the dollar. It is rising well in all other currencies.

We all watch the gold price in dollars to see whether it is rising or falling. This way of thinking is deeply embedded, going back to the time when the dollar was entrenched as the world’s most important currency.

This has extended to each of us, looking first at our expectations of which way the gold price is going in the dollar, then our view of the currency under which we live, against the dollar. Our objective is to see how gold will perform in our currency [if it is not the dollar]. The separation of our currency against the dollar and the dollar against gold is because the dollar, right now, is the global currency. But this is waning. Indeed, the gold price in the dollar is slowly becoming a measure of the dollar against gold, not the other way around.

Over time as we move into a multi-currency system and when the biggest physical gold market, China, dominates the gold price [which is happening right now], we will have to shift our thinking back to measuring supply and demand for gold.

How will we see this measure the gold price? We have reported the alignment of the world’s three gold markets, London, New York and Shanghai as Shanghai gains in prominence. We are seeing far smaller impacts of speculative action, that dominates New York. We are seeing London’s bullion banks ensure they are as prominent in the Chinese market as they are in London. China has made speculative trading much more expensive than New York, and since then we see more stability in the gold price. This tells us the effect of the Chinese gold market is becoming easily visible.

In turn we see the gold price more effectively measuring the value of currencies, as it has over several millenniums. Today’s action shows the gold price rising in all currencies, but more in the euro than in the dollar. In other ‘soft’ currencies the gold price is an excellent hedge against a weakening currency and more so over the long term. Over the very long term the gold price outperforms most other investments. For instance in the early ‘70’s a South African investor would have bought a Krugerrand for R300, it is now priced at around R16,200.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday saw no sales or purchases from or into the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 841.169 tonnes and 201.38 tonnes. 

 Julian D.W. Phillips 

 GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold price consolidating again

 Gold Today –New York closed at $1,235.60 on the 16th February after closing at $1,239.30 on the 17th February. London opened at $1,234.00 today.

 Overall the dollar was slightly stronger against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was stronger at $1.0619: €1 from $1.0645: €1 on Friday.

         The Dollar index was slightly stronger at 100.87 from 100.69 on Friday. 

         The Yen was weaker at 113.17:$1 from Friday’s 112.85 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was weaker at 6.8783: $1, from 6.8654: $1, Friday. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2462: £1 from Friday’s $1.2407: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    2    20

     2017    2    17

      2017    2    16

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

275.61

275.34

/

275.89

274.79

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8783

      $1: 6.8654

$1: 6.8603

  /

$1,248.64

$1,248.35

/

$1,249.91

$1,245.85

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 Shanghai was trading at 275.30 Yuan towards the close today. This equates to $1,244.90, but allowing for the different quality of gold being traded [0.9999 fineness] it stands at $1,239.90. Shanghai is in line with both London and New York.

If we look back to the time when the SGE started to make speculation more expensive, earlier this year, we see that the price differentials between London, New York and Shanghai have narrowed and when Shanghai is not leading the way the three markets remain in line. This implies that the efforts of arbitrageurs appear to be succeeding in smoothing prices out. This makes the global gold price a reliable one with speculators losing their power to shift the gold price heavily without additional physical gold action.

Consequently, we expect in the future to see fewer violent swings in the gold price between markets. We do see that gold prices are reflecting exchange rate moves, which is what gold should do.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,235.35 down from Friday’s $1,241.40.  

The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,163.12 after Friday’s €1,166.29.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,236.35 and in the euro at €1,163.90.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $18.02. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $18.00 at New York’s close Friday against $18.08 on the 16th February

Price Drivers

The week has started in a quiet mood with no startling gold related news moving prices. Sales from the U.S. based gold ETFs have held back prices below $1,240, but we don’t see them as precipitating a fall in the gold price today. We expect to see more consolidation today.

The august Alan Greenspan has said, “The European Central Bank (ECB) has greater problems than the Federal Reserve. The asset side of the ECB’s balance sheet is larger than ever before, having grown steadily since Mario Draghi said he would do whatever it took to preserve the euro.  I have grave concerns about the future of the Euro itself.  Northern Europe has, in effect, been funding the deficits of the South; that cannot continue indefinitely. The Eurozone is not working.” Greenspan said Brexit is almost certainly set to trigger a collapse of the ECB despite the UK not having signed up to take on the currency.

Alan Greenspan says that investors are back to safe havens including precious metals because there is no trust in the banking system. And he said countries cannot continue to borrow in the way that they have been signaling that quantitative easing is not working. He added: “I view gold as the primary global currency.

Alan Greenspan is not selling anything, is not given to extreme statements, but is an ex-Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Central banks in all nations have to control their national currency. The more currencies face loss of confidence the more control over their own citizen’s money is needed. Within their own jurisdiction central banks almost cannot be held to account. That’s why Japan can sustain its horrendous debt, most of it is owned by their own citizens.

Outside it they are in danger [as we see in Greece today].  So, when Alan Greenspan himself makes the above statements we should be looking to gold, particularly those who have to live with the euro, before they can’t!

Gold ETFs – Friday saw sales of 2.37 tonnes from the holdings of the SPDR gold ETF and sales of 0.65 of a tonne from the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 841.169 tonnes and 201.38 tonnes. 

Since January 4th 2016, 241.939 tonnes of gold have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.  Since January 6th 2017 31.858 tonnes have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust.

 Julian D.W. Phillips 

 GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold building a base above $1,240

 Gold Today –New York closed at $1,239.30 on the 16th February after closing at $1,232.60 on the 15th February. London opened at $1,240.00 today.

 Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was weaker at $1.0645: €1 from $1.0627: €1 on yesterday.

         The Dollar index was weaker at 100.69 from 100.80 on yesterday. 

         The Yen was stronger at 112.85:$1 from yesterday’s 113.70 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was weaker at 6.8654: $1, from 6.8603: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2407: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2494: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    2    17

     2017    2    16

      2017    2    15

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

275.34

273.26

/

274.79

273.34

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8654

      $1: 6.8603

$1: 6.8694

  /

$1,248.35

$1,237.27

/

$1,245.85

$1,237.64

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 Shanghai was trading at 275.90 Yuan towards the close today. This equates to $1,249.96, but allowing for the different quality of gold being traded [.9999 fineness] it stands at $1,244.96. Shanghai continues to lead the way over New York by $5 and $3 over London.

With Capital Controls over Yuan outflows reducing turnover volumes in its currency we are watching the classic central bank battles against moves in a currency. We have yet to see a central bank win the battle over controlling an exchange rate.

Such controls are defeating the internationalization of the Yuan. We expect them to drop the battle at some point in time and for the Yuan to lurch lower then. The Chinese gold investor, we think, is aware of such pressures and is happy to own gold rather than Yuan.

We are of the opinion that despite the above the government of China will continue to allow the outflow of Yuan to pay for gold imports, while controlling other outflows.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,241.40 up from yesterday’s $1,236.75.  The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,166.29 after yesterday’s €1,163.67.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,243.10 and in the euro at €1,166.57.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $18.06. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $18.08 at New York’s close yesterday against $17.97 on the 15th February. 

Price Drivers

With even Blackrock recommending gold in portfolios we expect more U.S. buying to follow in gold. Today it is building a base over $1,240 and looking as though it wants to run.

One of the most difficult features of financial markets today is the demand for short term performance even within monthly time slots.

Gold has always been for the long term outperforming all other investments over that time, but in the world today it’s the fund manager that meets trading demands that is deemed the best manager. Indeed, we have always seen that the best portfolio manager is measured over the medium to long term and is not a trader. Warren Buffett backs that and proves the point.

We have absolutely no doubt that if you measure gold from today over the next five years or longer, gold will outperform all other investments. Look back over the past decade and we prove our point.

Having said that we expect to see gold from today to the end of the year likely outperform all other investments. Even Alan Greenspan has recently stated that gold is the ultimate insurance policy.

This seems more than appropriate in a world that is moving from dollar hegemony to a multi-currency monetary system as ‘popularism’ is spreading across the developed world. With French and German elections pointing towards change and an E.U. that Greenspan says is ‘not working’ gold seems to be a relatively safe place to weather coming storms.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday we no change in the holdings of the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 843.539 tonnes and 202.03 tonnes. 

 Julian D.W. Phillips 

 GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold stronger today in all currencies

 Gold Today –New York closed at $1,232.60 on the 15th February after closing at $1,227.40 on the 14th February. London opened at $1,238.00 today.

 Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was stronger at $1.0627: €1 from $1.0572: €1 on yesterday.

         The Dollar index was weaker at 100.80 from 101.29 on yesterday. 

         The Yen was stronger at 113.70:$1 from yesterday’s 114.47 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was stronger at 6.8603: $1, from 6.8694: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2494: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2457: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix

Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    2    16

     2017    2    15

      2017    2    14

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

273.26

273.51

/

273.34

274.10

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8603

      $1: 6.8694

$1: 6.8681

  /

$1,237.27

$1,238.64

/

$1,237.64

$1,241.31

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 Shanghai was trading at 274.40 Yuan towards the close today. This equates to $1,239.08, but allowing for the different quality of gold being traded [.9999 fineness]. As you can see Shanghai is leading the way over London and New York but only slightly now.

Thus  Shanghai is once again leading the way higher and pulling other markets with it. But the differential between the global gold markets is only slight now.

In 2016 China consumed close to 2,000 tonnes of gold, mostly drawing it off from the west.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,236.75 up from yesterday’s $1,225.15.  

The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,163.67 after yesterday’s €1,161.22.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,237.40 and in the euro at €1,164.01.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $18.06. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.97 at New York’s close yesterday against $17.94 on the 14th February

Price Drivers

The dollar rises seen in the last few days, are largely due to speculative, emotional, positioning punting a bullish picture for the dollar. Yes, the superficial view of the factors pointing to a strong dollar, such as higher interest rate differentials coming, more potential dynamic growth and potential cash inflows from repatriated funds look positive for the dollar. But we cannot ignore the desire of the Fed and Treasury to see a weaker dollar for the sake of U.S. international trade.

Yesterday we said, “We are watching the dollar carefully to see if it does jump or be contained at these or lower levels. This will point the way forward in the U.S. to its gold price.” And the day after it slipped again. It is at a critical juncture where it can go either way in the near term.

What does appear to be happening is that uncertainties across the world are worrying investors and they are being seen to favour gold investments. Here we are talking about directly held gold bullion under the control of the investor, not ‘electronic gold’. This demand is growing, as reported by our friends in Swiss refineries, etc, who continue to be going flat out refining gold into metric formats for trading in markets in Switzerland and eastwards. It is most enlightening to hear that such Swiss gold people are not at all happy to receive dollars in payment, only euros or Swiss Francs. This tells quite a story!

Gold ETFs – Yesterday we purchases of 2.667 tonnes into the SPDR gold ETF and o.74 of a tonne into the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 843.539 tonnes and 202.03 tonnes.  We focus only on these two ETFs as they represent U.S. gold demand well, but the total increase in global ETFs is around 51 tonnes in the last 10 days.

Since January 4th 2016, 244.959 tonnes of gold have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.  Since January 6th 2017 34.878 tonnes have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust.

Julian D.W. Phillips 

 GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

More gold going into GLD. Druckenmiller back as gold buyer.

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,233.00 on the 7th February after closing at $1,234.70 on the 6th February. London opened at $1,232.00 today.

 Overall the dollar was mixed against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was weaker at $1.0672: €1 from $1.0666: €1 on yesterday.

         The Dollar index was weaker at 100.45 from 100.62 on yesterday. 

         The Yen was weaker at 112.38:$1 from yesterday’s 112.19 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was weaker at 6.8860: $1, from 6.8790: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2514: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2363: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    2    08

     2017    2    07

      2017    2    06

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

273.34

269.93

/

274.38

271.92

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8790

      $1: 6.8790

$1: 6.8625

  /

$1,235.91

$1,232.81

/

$1,240.61

$1,232.45

 Shanghai was trading in gold at 275.00 Yuan during today’s session before London opened. This equates to $1,242.15. Shanghai is $4 higher than New York and more than $5 higher than Lomdon, but prices today have been heading in that direction.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,235.60 up from yesterday’s $1,231.00.  

The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,160.51 after yesterday’s €1,152.89.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,237.00 and in the euro at €1,161.78.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.74. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.71 at New York’s close Friday against $17.73 on the 6th February. 

 Price Drivers

While U.S. based gold investors have returned to the gold market via the SPDR [GLD] gold ETF, we had not heard of any large gold investors returning until now. Today we have received reports that Stan Drukenmiller, having exited the gold market in December, has returned to it.

He is a short to medium trader but a very large one, with his fund. So he can exit just as fast. But he is the type of gold investor that leads the way for others.

We had almost forgotten Greece’s debt problems and then suddenly it’s back. The expected economic recovery is just not producing the results creditors wanted. It will not be able to meet its obligations shortly, so Germany wants more austerity and less pensions.

This may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Will Greece leave the euro and E.U.? At this stage, bearing in mind Prime Minister Tsiprias’ actions last time, we think not, but certainly it adds to the negative situation in the E.U. Add to that France’s elections and Italy’s woes and we see a Europe on the brink and unlikely to survive in its present form. This is gold positive.

With Japan now dumping U.S. Treasuries as yields rise, causing capital losses the U.S. bond market is falling and very vulnerable to more large falls as yields continue to rise. It was inevitable. With so many simmering sources of trouble the natural inclination to see only the best may not serve us well.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday we saw 8.295 tonnes of gold bought into the SPDR gold ETF (GLD) and 0.39 of a tonne into the Gold Trust (IAU).  Their respective holdings are now at 826.948 tonnes and 200.30 tonnes. 

This large purchase yesterday into the SPDR gold ETF doubled the amount bought by U.S. investors into U.S. gold ETFs since the beginning of this year.  

We expect U.S. Investors to follow the lead of these hedge funds.

Since January 4th 2016, 226.638 tonnes of gold have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.  Since January 6th 2017 16.557 tonnes have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust.
 Julian D.W. Phillips: GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Banks and Dealers positioned for higher Gold price. GLD continues to add gold

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,234.70 on the 6th February after closing at $1,219.00 on the 5th February. London opened at $1,230.00 today.

Overall the dollar was stronger against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was stronger at $1.0666: €1 from $1.0750: €1 on yesterday.

         The Dollar index was stronger at 100.62 from 99.96 on yesterday. 

         The Yen was stronger at 112.19:$1 from yesterday’s 112.62 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was weaker at 6.8790: $1, from 6.8625: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2363: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2457: £1.

 Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    2    07

     2017    2    06

      2017    2    03

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

272.00

269.93

/

271.92

269.52

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8790

      $1: 6.8625

$1: 6.8632

  /

$1,232.81

$1,223.30

/

$1,232.45

$1,221.44

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle Eat eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

Shanghai was trading in gold at 274.3 Yuan during today’s session before London opened. This equates to $1,240.25. Shanghai now has momentum and was trading just 55 cents above New York’s close.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,231.00 up from yesterday’s $1,221.85.  

The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,152.89 after yesterday’s €1,137.45.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,230.75 and in the euro at €1,152.77.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.64. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.73 at New York’s close Friday against $17.46 on the 3rd February. 

Price Drivers

What is now very clear is that if Marine le Pen and her party are elected, France will likely leave the E.U. Yesterday saw a plan to leave the E.U. produced by her party. It could involve a dual currency. Some have said that a dual currency never works. On the contrary dual currencies have pulled several nations out of a hole, including the U.K. in the early seventies. One currency for commercial transactions and another for capital. The ‘Dollar Premium’ used by the U.K. was structured not only to prevent capital leaving but gave incentives to capital coming in. It worked so well that after the crisis then, there was a return to a single currency and no capital exited thereafter that could not be managed. At Gold Forecaster we wrote at length that this was an option for Greece years ago. Properly handled such dual currencies are ideal in the case of a nation like France that faces the risk of a capital exit and the return of the French Franc. It must be accompanied by Capital/Exchange Controls at the same time during the period of transition.

In response to the promise of a return to the French Franc Mario Draghi had a sense of humour failure and stated that the euro was irreversible.  So the issue of sovereignty both in the E.U. and in the member states is on the table! Even Britain may lose a member nation, Scotland.

Such an introspective national posturing is very good for gold as it highlights the weaknesses inherent in national currencies, producing falling confidence in them. Hence the need for a non-national asset that is acceptable internationally, even between enemies and those uncreditworthy nations. Gold has always filled that role, lasting throughout history. National currencies have not.

But as we said yesterday, “The moment such talk hits the airwaves, the moment we hear that will mean a collapsing euro. We cannot buy that at all”. The strong members remaining will re-group behind the euro.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday we saw 4.418 tonnes of gold bought into the SPDR gold ETF (GLD) but no change was seen in the holdings of the Gold Trust (IAU).  Their respective holdings are now at 818.653 tonnes and 199.91 tonnes. 

Yesterday’s large purchase of gold into the SPDR gold ETF added to the ongoing steady buying pattern that began last week.

As we said yesterday, “The buying is persistent enough for the bullion banks to keep their books ‘long’ of gold. The potential for any shortage of open market stocks is great now, as the mood towards gold goes positive. So dealers and banks have re-positioned themselves for higher prices.”

Since January 4th 2016, 217.953 tonnes of gold has been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust. 
 Julian D.W. Phillips:  GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

Gold firm – seeing good support as GLD adds more gold

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,219.00 on the 3rd February after closing at $1,215.30 on the 2nd February. London opened at $1,223.20 today.

Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was slightly stronger at $1.0750: €1 from $1.0758: €1 on Friday.

         The Dollar index was getting stronger at 99.96 from 99.88 on Friday. 

         The Yen was stronger at 112.62:$1 from Friday’s 113.12 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was stronger at 6.8625: $1, from 6.8632: $1, Friday. 

         The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2457: £1 from Friday’s $1.2524: £1.

 Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    2    06

     2017    2    03

      2017    1    31

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

269.93

/

/

269.52

/

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8625

      $1: 6.8632

$1: 6.8772

  /

$1,223.30

/

/

$1,221.44

/

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle Eat eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 Shanghai was trading in gold at Yuan 269.85/gramme during today’s session before London opened. This equates to $1,223.06. For the first time in the last month all global gold markets appear in line. The reality is that Shanghai is lower due to the higher quality of gold it prices at $1,218.06. Therefore New York and London are higher than Shanghai. It’s the first time we have seen this, this year.

We need to make allowances for the fact that the Lunar New Year holiday only finished last Thursday. It’s still gaining trading momentum.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,221.85 down from Friday’s $1,213.05.  

The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,137.45 after Friday’s €1,129.78.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,226.55 and in the euro at €1,141.83.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.62. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.46 at New York’s close Friday against $17.47 on the 2nd February. 

Price Drivers

With Shanghai still gathering cruising speed, London and New York are looking firm. The gains of Friday are still holding as President Trump continues to stir the pot on all fronts. But the currency front looks quiet at the moment. The dollar index has fallen through support and looks like we will see weakness, a factor favoring gold.

The market today looks as though it has built a base above support just above $1,200 and is set to rise. Continued U.S. ETF physical buying points to a palpable change to the positive, in the U.S. and London gold markets.

Remarkably we hear the German Finance Minister informing the world that the euro is too weak to benefit Germany. Is this a misquote? Was he serious? Nothing has helped Germany more since the euro was invented than that weak currency. By tying weak economies into a single currency in Europe, Germany has managed to drain capital and skills to itself because of its robust exports and strong economy. If the euro had not been weak and Germany retained the Deutschemark, it would have priced German goods out of the market long ago!

What is becoming clear to all is that Marine le Pen in France may well do a Trump in the coming elections. If she takes the French Presidency she will have a referendum to leave the E.U. And the media there is doing what the media did in the U.S. and persistently talked down that eventuality.

It is also clear that Italy is facing a crisis that brings it into the ‘want to exit’ the E.U., making a ‘Europe Unie’ a dubious concept. We hear many reports now on how Italy may well head to the exit too.

The moment such talk hits the airwaves, the moment we hear that will mean a collapsing euro. We cannot buy that at all

But with the weakening dollar, gold is doing well. But please note it is not just rising against the dollar, but against all currencies.

Gold ETFs – On Friday we saw 3.287 tonnes of gold bought into the SPDR gold ETF (GLD) but no change was seen in the holdings of the Gold Trust (IAU).  Their respective holdings are now at 814.505 tonnes and 199.91 tonnes. 

We are now seeing a steady pattern of gold buying into the U.S. based gold ETFs. In turn, this is pulling London up as the gold for these ETFs are sourced in London. We believe the London banks will not delay in buying as this could cause them to lose out as prices rise.

The buying is persistent enough for the bullion banks to keep their books ‘long’ of gold. The potential for any shortage of open market stocks is great now, as the mood towards gold goes positive. So dealers and banks have re-positioned themselves for higher prices.

Since January 4th 2016, 213.535 tonnes of gold has been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust. 

 Julian D.W. Phillips:   GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance