Gold – Rhetoric and U.S. economy calling the price

Article first posted on info.sharpspixley.com yesterday

While there is little doubt that the USA has a much larger and proven nuclear arsenal than North Korea, Kim Jong Un will know that to deploy this against the relatively small Asian nation is fraught with problems in that nuclear fallout as a result of any such attack could also have an impact on China and South Korea – the one a potentially even more dangerous adversary and the other an ally.  Whereas if North Korea were to take out say Guam with a nuclear strike, which it has threatened to do, the impact on other nations would be far less.  However we feel either scenario is unlikely, although one can’t rule out an escalation into conventional warfare..

In assessing the risk though one assumes the U.S. is also bearing in mind that North Korea has long threatened drastic military action against its many perceived adversaries, but has seldom, if ever, delivered this.  There is also no certainty that North Korea has developed small enough nuclear warheads to fit into its Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) which it has been developing, nor if they really have the range to reach the U.S. mainland, or the accuracy of delivery to hit their targets with any precision.  Anti-missile defence systems are also likely to be deployed around potential targets by America and its regional allies, but their efficacy is also unproven.

The whole rhetoric game – from North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un on the one side and President Trump on the other – may thus be bluff on both sides, but with a U.S. President who is prone to shoot from the hip, it is still a very dangerous confrontational game.  While a conventional non-nuclear war between the two powers would be hugely costly in terms of lives (North Korea has a huge and well equipped military) – even if China was not to be drawn in on the North Korean side – it would also be enormously dangerous to the South Korean capital, Seoul, which is only 35 miles (60km) from the North Korean border and potentially within artillery range.  (North Korean capital Pyongyang is around 130 km (80 miles) from the border so would not be quite so vulnerable to artillery attack from the South).

The big question probably is whether President Trump is painting himself into a corner with the ever-expanding hostile rhetoric.  Kim Jong Un has a history of not following through on his more dire threats so may feel that Trump will also prove to be a paper tiger.  But is this a misjudgement?  The world just doesn’t know and there is a fear that the continuing provocations may just result in a shooting war.  While nuclear arms may not be deployed by either side, at least initially, were North Korea to see itself losing such a conflict, its seemingly unstable leadership might consider launching a nuclear strike and heaven knows what that would lead to.

China may also be drawn in to any military conflict as it would rather not see a potentially hostile regime on its border.  If a shooting war does start then the ultimate diplomatic solution would, assuming Kim Jong Un is actually defeated, perhaps give China control over whatever government would take the place of the current North Korean regime.

Gold supposedly thrives on uncertainty and while the hostile rhetoric between North Korea and the USA continues, the ensuing uncertainty will build.  Coupled with the U.S. economy not performing as the Fed would like, we could also see a further decline in the U.S. dollar which should, de facto, give a boost to the dollar price of gold, which could thus be seen to appreciate strongly in dollar terms as 2017 progresses, even if the gains are not mirrored in other key currencies.

At the moment the gold price seems to be hovering uncomfortably in the $1,280s.  Some seem to be trying to knock it back – U.S. trading on Friday for example saw the gold price pulled back sharply from a couple of brief forays into the $1,290s, but whether this was profit taking, or a case of once again the powers-that-be not wishing to see the psychological $1,300 level breached, remains to be seen.  Morning trade in Europe today has seen the yellow metal move a little weaker in price, but this week could be make-or-break in terms of a move into the $1,300s.  There are still a couple of weeks of the northern hemisphere holiday season yet to run when trading can be thin, although that hasn’t been the case in the past week, but we will probably have to wait until post U.S. Labor Day (Sept 4th) for any real trend to develop.

What will happen then will be very much dependent on the escalation, or de-escalation of the U.S.-North Korean militaristic rhetoric and on U.S. economic data, which has recently been gold supportive in showing weakness in the purported U.S. economic recovery, thus reducing the Fed’s interest rate raising options

Over the longer term, this observer remains on the side of the gold bulls.  Asian demand, which is soaking up virtually all the physical gold which is available, will continue to grow as the overall wealth trend in the region remains positive; New mined supply will remain flat, or trend downwards, albeit perhaps only marginally.  Should U.S. safe haven demand return – more likely the longer the Trump-Kim war of threats continues – then we could see a serious squeeze in physical gold availability and the diminution of the ability of paper gold transactions – real or spoofed – to control the price.  Interesting times!

Gold back over $1280; Silver over $17; U.S. recovery fragile and vulnerable

Gold Today –New York closed yesterday at $1,279.30. London opened at $1,278.00 today. 

Overall the dollar was stronger against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:

–         The $: € was stronger at $1.1732 after the yesterday’s $1.1760: €1.

–         The Dollar index was stronger at 93.70 after yesterday’s 93.61.

–         The Yen was weaker at 109.98 after yesterday’s 109.75:$1.

–         The Yuan was much stronger at 6.6594 after yesterday’s 6.6782: $1.

–         The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2980 after yesterday’s $1.3005: £1

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date     Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    8    10

     2017    8    9           

     2017    8    8

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

273.77

273.21

Trading at 275.75

273.69

272.70

$ equivalent 1oz at 0.995 fineness

@   $1: 6.6594

       $1: 6.6782

       $1: 6.7059     

  /$1,270.07

$1,262.21

Trading at $1,282.92$1,269.70

$1,259.84

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 New York closed just under $10.00 higher than Shanghai’s close yesterday. Then today sees Shanghai lifting the gold price even higher as you can see. London is still lagging but not by much as it opened

We were looking to see if this was a jump on the back of the deteriorating situation with North Korea. We would have thought that if this were so, the gold price would have jumped higher. So far the evidence is not there.

London is $5 lower than Shanghai, but raced to catch up and at one point in London was the same as Shanghai’s earlier trading levels.

Silver Today –Silver closed at $16.86 yesterday after $16.38 at New York’s close Tuesday.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set this morning at $1,278.90 from yesterday’s $1,267.95.  The gold price in the euro was set at €1,091.03 after yesterday’s €1,080.30.

Just before the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,280.60 and in the euro at €1,092.38. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.10. 

Price Drivers

The gold price in dollars is now at $1,280, so the answer to yesterday’s question, “Will it run higher in the $1,270s?” was given in a day! So, where next?

The Yuan continues to strengthen strongly against the dollar, which itself is strengthening against other currencies.

The Fed

Members of the FOMC are talking to the media in very dovish manners. The evidence that inflation is falling has clearly disturbed them. After the 2015, 2016 steady building of inflation, it is falling back again. This implies that we may well not see another rate hike in 2017. They still feel that a start to the Fed’s Balance Sheet tightening will be made. After all, it will be slight and the Fed believes it will have barely any impact on markets.

While academically that may be true, psychologically it may be a mistake. The recovery remains vulnerable and fragile. Any hint of tightening may well cause a market reaction when they broach that subject with action. Meanwhile, the earnings picture is pointing to it peaking in the near term, if it has not already done so. This makes equity markets toppy. They could turn mercurial if evidence arrives that tightening, even slightly, is about to happen.

Gold will benefit from any stalling of Fed tightening. Real interest rates continue to be negative but if inflation falls back further until rates are not negative, we fully expect the Fed to turn back to the easing path.

North Korea

It is apparent that North Koreans are being fed propaganda that the U.S. is its main enemy and about to invade the country. This distracts from the dire economic state of the country. President Trump is reinforcing that idea with his responses. His words would, in the North Koreans eyes, justify continuing on the threatening war path. The President of the country is seen as a psychopath and intent on going ahead with his threats.

China, on the other hand, will not allow that buffer state to be destroyed, bringing the U.S., militarily dominated South Korea to its doorstep. This formula will lead to conflict, we now believe. But the markets have not yet responded to this potential. Gold has not jumped as it would have done if markets were reacting. The rise overnight in the gold price in the U.S. was not via physical buying but a dealer’s response to the North Korean situation. On the other hand the rise in Shanghai prices would be based on physical dealings. A $10 rise in Shanghai falls far short of a ‘war fear’ rise.

As we said yesterday, “Gold will benefit if war does break out as the war hurts financial markets the whole world over.”

Gold ETFs – Yesterday there were no changes in the holdings of the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust holdings yesterday. The SPDR gold ETF and Gold Trust holdings are at 786.869 tonnes and at 211.43 tonnes respectively.

Julian D.W. Phillips  GoldForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance