Julian Phillips: RIP

We learnt today that Julian Phillips, whose informative regular reports on the gold and silver markets had been a continuing feature of our pages, passed away on August 26th.  Our thoughts are with his wife and daughters.  We will miss greatly such a strong follower of the precious metals markets and his regular contributions to our pages.

We reproduce below an obituary penned by Peter Spina of the Goldseek website who had been publishing Julian’s observations on the markets fo far longer than we have.  Peter’s views echo those of my own and I couldn’t produce a better summation of Julian’s character, life and work. His contributions to these pages will be sorely missed:

In Memory of Julian Phillips

By Peter Spina

Julian Phillips

It is with deep sadness that I share this notice of the sudden passing of Julian D.W. Phillips on the morning of August 26th. Julian was a much admired and a strong supporter of the gold and silver community, and a leading thinker who guided us for many years. His extensive work influenced tens of thousands of readers across the most recognized gold websites, media and subscribers and his passing is a big loss to many.

Over the past few decades, those who read Julian’s work know of his leadership in not just understanding the global gold, financial and monetary markets, but forecasting the major shifts to come. His work influenced many other precious metals commentators and assisted them to evolve their own understanding.  His important work provided guidance to many thousands of investors.

I met Julian shortly after the year 2,000 and he generously agreed to share his financial and monetary knowledge on GoldSeek.com during the very early days of the gold bull market. Not many authors were even covering gold at the absolute market bottom and very few had his global perspective from having lived on different continents. Julian’s weekly articles, then written under the publication Gold Authentic Money, brought incredible depth and knowledge to readers from around the world. He quickly became one of the top and most widely followed gold analysts on GoldSeek, with his expertise being highly prized by investment funds as well as the international media.

In 2005 his co-contributing technical analyst retired from Gold Authentic Money and Julian approached me to join him on a new publication, resulting in our launch of The Gold Forecaster – Global Watch. I was in my mid-20s at the time and felt quite honored to have been even considered by Julian, whom I consider one of my mentors. I was reluctant but Julian encouraged me to share my decade long experience in precious metals with my focus on junior mining companies and my technical forecasts.

In this way, our collaboration began and together we provided subscribers with an in-depth weekly newsletter forecasting the fundamental and technical aspects of precious metals with regards to the many markets and influences on its price. We produced nearly 600 weekly Gold Forecaster newsletter issues over these prior dozen years, through both the good and the difficult times, guiding thousands of subscribers through this evolving bull market. Julian’s strong fundamental knowledge truly made up the core contribution of the typically 20-30 long page weekly publication and I remain honored to have been able to work with him for so many years and sharing his insights with so many through GoldSeek.com.

Together we actively managed a multi-million dollar precious metals hedge fund for a wealthy family office, yielding millions in profitable returns in just the several months of management. But after our strong returns in the early phase of the bull market, the family office felt like gold was nearing its peak as it was running towards $800/ounce.

This then opened the door for Julian to create and develop an exceptional product for gold investors providing gold confiscation protection in the form of a storage fund. Using his experience helping families protect and move their wealth from Zimbabwe’s confiscation in the 1980’s, Julian spent the last several years creating The Ultimate Gold Trust with the assistance of skilled lawyers, bankers and bullion administrators. Now many years into its establishment, there still is no other product of its kind which provides such an exclusive gold protection structure against future confiscations.

The Ultimate Gold Trust has attracted numerous clients resulting in a large amount of physical bullion stored securely in Switzerland and all of the hard work Julian undertook to build this gold protection fund remains active today. Because of this, Julian’s legacy will endure for many years to come, providing critical confiscation protection to gold and silver investors.

Julian’s work is vast and he had an incredible amount of knowledge to share which included his daily Gold & Silver Market Mornings, the weekly Gold & Silver Forecaster newsletters, special feature reports, interviews, in addition to being an advisor to major investment funds from Hong Kong, London to New York City and not limited to organizations including GFMS. Yet unknown to most, over the past few years Julian had begun work on a book entitled “The Book on Gold” that was to “speak to all investors with a focus on the very basics of money.”

What is not known by most of the tens of thousands who followed Julian was the personal side of Julian. If you had the opportunity to ever speak with Julian, ever so generous with his time, you would quickly come to know Julian’s character. An honest man with such integrity, Julian had a wonderful wit and humor. He was a deeply caring man, a true gentleman with such class. He had such delightful analogies to describe not only financial concepts but also his perspectives on life, usually weaving his love of sailing into lengthy conversations I was privileged to engage in often over the many miles between South Africa and Colorado.

I feel honored and extremely blessed to have spent the past decade and half working with Julian. I hold him and his work in the highest regard. I will deeply miss our talks and his constant guidance which I was able to share with so many others. He was a wonderful person to have worked with and will miss him as dear, close friend as will so many.

I would kindly ask all those who were impacted by Julian’s work to please send us your messages to julian@goldseek.com

I would like to share them with his loving wife and daughters which he leaves behind.

Julian was a huge proponent of gold and a strong supporter of the gold community. In the coming months, I will be reviewing and releasing some of Julian’s vast and yet unreleased work and articles. Some of which was written for our Gold Forecaster subscribers, some of which was intended for his book, but much of it remains relevant to the gold community today.

You can subscribe to Julian’s email list here to receive them, but we will also publish and share them with the precious metals community on GoldSeek in the coming month(s).

Peter

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Potential for instability and uncertainty increasing: World heading for extreme times.

Julian Phillips’ analysis of what’s happening in the gold and silver markets, sees some very uncertain times ahead.

New York closed at $1,162.40 up $3.60 with Asia and London holding it there in a barely changed market. The dollar was weaker at $1,1107 down from $1.1033 against the euro with the dollar Index 96.11 down from 96.50.  The LBMA gold price was set this morning at $1,162.40 up only $0.30. The euro equivalent was €1,038.27 down €14.69. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,160.10 and in the euro at €1,037.01.

The silver price rose to $15.46 up 32 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was also trading at $15.46.

Has Tsiprias done enough? Has he committed political suicide? Will he get the Greek Parliament’s backing? Will the E.U. feel it is enough? The German Finance Minister agrees that Greece cannot repay its current debt, but will not go with a debt write down. Better to make repayment last for 40+ more years at a miniscule interest rate, he feels. A rose by any other name? Monday will see if this issue will impact the exchange rate of the euro or not. The dollar gold price is relatively unmoved but with the euro climbing the euro price of gold is falling. Next week could prove dramatic! Certainly it looks as though, at last, there could be a resolution to the story? Markets are, on balance looking for the E.U. to accept the latest Greek offer, but we would rather wait and see. Until next week we do not see any really strong moves in currencies or precious metals.

The Chinese government’s ‘shackling’ of the Shanghai equity market is more a clash between Communism and free markets than it is of global economic concern. China had thought that it was a way of increasing wealth but did not account for speculation.

With the IMF lowering global economic growth forecasts and, in particular, that of the U.S., the potential for instability and uncertainty has increased. This takes us towards extreme times. With the Fed looking at the end of this year or next before raising interest rates, they too are keeping their heads down. What is important about these downward looking prospects is that this is all that has been achieved after 7 years of efforts to stimulate the global economy and in particular the U.S. economy. Is the global economy on a self-sustaining road forward to better times? That’s not what we are hearing. So are we at the bottom for gold and silver prices? With China aiming to have more control over the gold price and to inject the Yuan into the global monetary system there is a case to be made for this thought.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

Gold price falls should bring in Asian buyers

Julian Phillips’ analysis of what’s happening in the New York and London gold markets and on geopolitical events affecting the precious metals markets.

New York closed yesterday at $1,199.40 down $3.80 in a market dominated by currency issues. Asia took the gold price up to $1,204 before London pulled it down to $1,199. London then Fixed the gold price at $1,199.75 down $4.50 and in the euro, at €1,086.041, up €3.374, while the euro was at $1.1047 down nearly three quarters of a cent. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,200.00 and in the euro at €1,086.17.

The silver price closed at $16.18 down 8 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $16.20.  The silver price may well drop much faster than gold if the gold price falls further, but as Asian demand comes in we expect the silver price to recover quickly once more.

There were no sales from the SPDR gold ETF yesterday, but there was a sale of 0.48 of a tonne from the Gold Trust, on Wednesday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 760.799 tonnes and at 165.46 tonnes in the Gold Trust.  The gold price is being influenced by arbitrageurs working the gold price, the euro and the dollar exchange rates.  Such a fall to just below $1,200 will, we expect, bring Asian buyers into the market, as the prices are not being moved on significant physical sales.

Today, we wait to hear the details of the E.C.B.’ quantitative easing program that will last, at least, until September 2016. We expect it will have to last much longer because the vigor and drive in U.S. business is far more than that of the Eurozone, as a whole. In Socialist Europe, where regulations and national interests have produced a snail’s pace of reform, lending has not been encouraged by low interest rates. From the Greek efforts to halt the bailout program to the slow progress on cutting French debt the political masters of the Eurozone are unwilling to take the steps the E.C.B. says are essential for sustainable growth. This leaves the Q.E. program the only real driver of growth in the area. We do see the situation as bringing dangers to the credibility of the euro in the future.

Though the Eurozone is showing initial signs of a recovery, inflation is still unacceptably low and may well remain so for some time to come. While the markets are still discounting the impact of Eurozone Q.E. it is the exchange rate that is discounting it the most. This must delight the E.C.B. as they know that a low euro does promote global business as prices for its goods fall. We wonder just how long the U.S. will tolerate the falling euro.

We cannot emphasize enough the damage that is being done to confidence not just in the euro but in the world of currencies. The concept of currencies measuring value went out of the door long ago. In time, this will benefit the gold price, as it has always done in the past.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

 

Big SPDR gold ETF sale fails to dent support

Julian Phillips’ latest analysis of what is happening in the gold and silver markets with pertinent comment on a big sale from the SPDR gold ETFs and on the proposed Indian gold deposit scheme.

There was a large sale from the SPDR gold ETF yesterday of 7.763 tonnes which pulled the gold price back in New York, but did not penetrate support. It was accompanied by a sale of 0.46 of a tonne from the Gold Trust on Monday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 763.487 tonnes and at 165.97 tonnes in the Gold Trust.  The fact that support remained so resilient demonstrates the strong underlying tone, above $1,200. Asian demand remains robust and this price area attractive to Asian investors. The longer the gold price remains above $1,200 the more chances there are that prices will hold.

We have seen “gold Deposits schemes” being touted in the Indian budget as though this will free up gold, tightly held, in India. In the past such schemes have failed, just as Indian gold ETFs have failed. Will the present schemes succeed?

There is an underlying problem in India that has proved insurmountable for many decades. The Indian public has seen so much corruption in government and in government bureaucracy which has hurt gold investors so much they hidden the fact that they own gold. There is an entire ‘black’ financial world out of sight of government, based on property and gold. Until government sorts out corruption, such schemes will continue to fail. The corruption is so deep rooted that we do not expect any future anti-corruption measures in India to succeed. We expect Indian investors keep their financial affairs as far away as they can from public eyes because of this. To subscribe to any public, gold deposit scheme would mean the veil would have to be lifted something we  do not believe will happen.

The euro tried to recover in Europe yesterday but is struggling to stay above $1.12 today with the dollar index rising to 95.47 from 95.17. Equity markets are blooming, reaching new highs, but most believe this is on the back of quantitative easing and record low interest rates. For sure the markets can go higher still for as long as markets believe that interest rates will not rise. It is clear that the Eurozone equity markets will be encouraged by low interest rates for far longer than will be the case in the U.S.A.

Markets

New York closed yesterday at $1,205.50 down $5.60. Asia took the gold price up to $1,210 before London pulled it down to $1,208. London then Fixed the gold price at $1,207.75 down $9.00 and in the euro, at €1,081.196 up  €3.735, while the euro was almost unchanged at $1.1170 down nearly half a cent. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,208.40 and in the euro at €1,082.07.

Thus the silver price is still cautiously moving with the gold price, despite the struggle gold is having in moving higher at the moment. It appears that silver investors are ready to take the silver price higher. Only a break in gold’s support will bring on ‘brutal’ falls we feel.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com, www.silverforecaster.com