More gold going into GLD. Druckenmiller back as gold buyer.

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,233.00 on the 7th February after closing at $1,234.70 on the 6th February. London opened at $1,232.00 today.

 Overall the dollar was mixed against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was weaker at $1.0672: €1 from $1.0666: €1 on yesterday.

         The Dollar index was weaker at 100.45 from 100.62 on yesterday. 

         The Yen was weaker at 112.38:$1 from yesterday’s 112.19 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was weaker at 6.8860: $1, from 6.8790: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2514: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2363: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    2    08

     2017    2    07

      2017    2    06

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

273.34

269.93

/

274.38

271.92

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.8790

      $1: 6.8790

$1: 6.8625

  /

$1,235.91

$1,232.81

/

$1,240.61

$1,232.45

 Shanghai was trading in gold at 275.00 Yuan during today’s session before London opened. This equates to $1,242.15. Shanghai is $4 higher than New York and more than $5 higher than Lomdon, but prices today have been heading in that direction.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,235.60 up from yesterday’s $1,231.00.  

The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,160.51 after yesterday’s €1,152.89.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,237.00 and in the euro at €1,161.78.  At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.74. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.71 at New York’s close Friday against $17.73 on the 6th February. 

 Price Drivers

While U.S. based gold investors have returned to the gold market via the SPDR [GLD] gold ETF, we had not heard of any large gold investors returning until now. Today we have received reports that Stan Drukenmiller, having exited the gold market in December, has returned to it.

He is a short to medium trader but a very large one, with his fund. So he can exit just as fast. But he is the type of gold investor that leads the way for others.

We had almost forgotten Greece’s debt problems and then suddenly it’s back. The expected economic recovery is just not producing the results creditors wanted. It will not be able to meet its obligations shortly, so Germany wants more austerity and less pensions.

This may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Will Greece leave the euro and E.U.? At this stage, bearing in mind Prime Minister Tsiprias’ actions last time, we think not, but certainly it adds to the negative situation in the E.U. Add to that France’s elections and Italy’s woes and we see a Europe on the brink and unlikely to survive in its present form. This is gold positive.

With Japan now dumping U.S. Treasuries as yields rise, causing capital losses the U.S. bond market is falling and very vulnerable to more large falls as yields continue to rise. It was inevitable. With so many simmering sources of trouble the natural inclination to see only the best may not serve us well.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday we saw 8.295 tonnes of gold bought into the SPDR gold ETF (GLD) and 0.39 of a tonne into the Gold Trust (IAU).  Their respective holdings are now at 826.948 tonnes and 200.30 tonnes. 

This large purchase yesterday into the SPDR gold ETF doubled the amount bought by U.S. investors into U.S. gold ETFs since the beginning of this year.  

We expect U.S. Investors to follow the lead of these hedge funds.

Since January 4th 2016, 226.638 tonnes of gold have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.  Since January 6th 2017 16.557 tonnes have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust.
 Julian D.W. Phillips: GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

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Gold and silver to play increasing role in future multi-currency system

On Friday New York closed at $1,115.20, unchanged on Thursday. The dollar was slightly stronger at $1.1100 down from $1.1142 with the dollar Index weaker at 96.69 down from 96.42 on Monday morning. This morning the LBMA gold price was set at $1,117.30 up $0.55. The euro equivalent was €1,005.67 up €2.44. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in tight 30 point spread still around $1,121.65 and in the euro at €1,008.22.  

The silver price closed at $15.22 down 19 cents in New York on Friday. Ahead of New York’s opening today it was trading at $15.37.

Price Drivers

Last week the IMF confirmed that the Chinese economy is now the largest in the world. What does this mean for gold and silver investors? With the love for gold the Chinese and other Asian nations have, it means that demand for gold from there will persist and grow all the way. Other Asian demand will follow it alongside the growth in demand from India. We are two weeks from the start of the ‘gold season’.

More importantly for global demand for gold and silver it means that the global monetary system of the last 60+ years will have to change as China exerts a different force over it, making the peaceful currency system we have seen over all these year [Dollar hegemony] weaken and change into a multi-currency system in a more uncertain and unstable world. This brings gold and silver back to an important role in the extreme times we face. We have seen the start of this in the last two weeks.

We have seen sales of 31 tonnes of gold from Paulson’s ETF by the end of June and purchases of 9.15 tonnes by Druckenmiller. These are large funds and not prone to speculation in physical gold sales and purchases. However, there could be advantages to selling COMEX positions alongside such sales, profiting from subsequent price falls, but this would conflict with the big buyers coming into the market. We are inclined to believe that neither of these two funds played speculative games in the last month but that the large bear raids came from other sources.

There were no sales or purchases in either the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust on Friday leaving the holdings of the SPDR gold ETF at 671.867 tonnes and 161.02 tonnes in the Gold Trust.  

Silver– Silver is still ready to run.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecsater.com and www.silverforecaster.com