Sharp markdown in gold price as European and US tensions ease

 Gold Today –New York closed at $1,293.20 yesterday after closing at $1,293.80 Tuesday. London opened at $1,284.00 today. 

Overall the dollar was slightly stronger against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was slightly stronger at $1.1232 after yesterday’s $1.1254: €1.

         The Dollar index was stronger at 96.89 after yesterday’s 96.73

         The Yen was weaker at 110.07 after yesterday’s 109.30:$1. 

         The Yuan was slightly weaker at 6.7954 after yesterday’s 6.7931: $1. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2941 after yesterday’s $1.2898: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date     Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    6    8

     2017    6    7

     2017    6    6

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

 

 

283.66

282.37

 

Trading at 283.50

283.67

282.97

 

$ equivalent 1oz at 0.995 fineness

@    $1: 6.7954

       $1: 6.7931

       $1: 6.7954     

 

   

 

$1,293.79

$1,287.45

 

Trading at $1,292.62

$1,293.84

$1,290.19

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 New York and Shanghai stayed at the same level yesterday and this morning. London opened $9.20 lower. We see London preparing for sales of gold by marking prices down ahead of trading. With the geo-political and financial events taking place today in the U.K. and E.U  the market is pausing waiting for clarity going forward.

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.62 yesterday after $17.69 at New York’s close Tuesday.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,284.80 from yesterday’s $1,292.70.  The gold price in the euro was set at €1,143.37 after yesterday’s €1,151.01.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,284.75 and in the euro at €1,143.17. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.63. 

Price Drivers

British Elections happen today. As we said yesterday, “With the discussions around the size of the conservative majority it appears to us that the result will not affect the gold price.”

Draghi and the E.U.

Growth in the Eurozone is now clearly evident, but inflation is falling. As we said yesterday, Draghi, who has repeatedly said that policy makers must be convinced that inflation can rise toward 2% on its own, before removing monetary stimulus, may well make a point of this, but will, it seems only change his language in the statement slightly confirming this. This is positive for gold.

The Dollar

We do expect the euro to continue getting stronger against the U.S. dollar. Today the $ index is consolidating.

Today the indications are that Japan is moving towards ending their stimulus program. Whether this is because they deem it is no longer working or whether they have  beaten back deflation is yet to be confirmed. Certainly falling and low inflation world-wide is indicating such battles have not been won.

Comey Testimony

Former FBI Director James Comey is to testify today on whether President Trump tried to interfere with FBI investigation into possible links between then Security Adviser  Michael Flynn and Russia.  Consensus was that Comey would not say anything too damaging to the Trump Administration and this consensus was a partial contributor to a sharp markdown in the gold price, along with profit taking and the stronger dollar. (Editor)

Gold ETFs – Yesterday, saw purchases of 9.764 tonnes of gold and with yesterday’s 4.61 tonnes of gold bought into the SPDR gold ETF, we have seen 14.93 tonnes of physical gold bought into U.S. based gold ETFs in the last two days. We saw 0.56 of a tonne bought into the Gold Trust. Their holdings are now at 864.927 tonnes and, at 205.56 tonnes respectively.

U.S. buyers are strong buyers of physical gold now although this may not continue if today’s gold price downturn lasts.

Since January 6th 2017 58.693 tonnes have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust. This is an approximately 30% increase in the last two days!

 Julian D.W. Phillips 

 GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

 

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