New York still setting gold price although bulk of trade is through London
Julian Phillips’ latest analysis of what is happening in the immediate gold and silver markets and of what is really driving the price movements.
New York closed Monday at $1,225.30 up 40 cents over Friday’s close. Asia and London let it slip. The LBMA Gold price was set at $1,219.65 down $8.50 over Monday’s level. The euro equivalent stood at €1,089.12 up €11.89 while the dollar was stronger and the euro weaker at $1.1198 down from $1.1401 against the euro. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London back over $1,220 and in the euro at around €1,090.
The silver price closed at $17.68 up 15 cents on Friday’s level. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $17.40.
Yesterday saw sales of 5.668 tonnes of gold from the SPDR Gold ETF but nothing from the Gold Trust. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 718.243 tonnes and at 166.14 tonnes in the Gold Trust. These were heavy sales and, we suspect from the same sellers that sold the heaviest tonnage since early 2015 in the last week and more. The sales were large enough to restrain the gold price but not to pull it down. This is what the consolidation of the gold price is all about.
The dollar index is stronger at 94.88 up from yesterday’s 93.60. The euro is much weaker today at $1.1090 after yesterday’s $1.14o1 and remarks from the ECB that they will increase QE in months when liquidity is low in holiday months. Is the correction over? Perhaps it is and as we said yesterday the market expectation and ours is that we will see the euro eventually at $1.
The gold market is moving because of currency issues now. But in time the gold price, as it has done of late, walks its own road and rises in the euro too and often in the dollar, at the same time. Gold will move against all currencies and is not linked to a specific currency. But when the market allows it will follow a currency.
This brings us to the concept of pricing power, once more. It is apparent over the years of this century that New York, where a small amount of physical gold is traded, the gold price is ‘made’. London where around 80% of the globe’s market traded physical gold is traded, has a smaller say in the matter. The bulk of gold traded outside the market usually on contracts or with central banks, has no say in the gold price. Instead it is convenient to refer to the New York or London price [currently the twice daily LBMA Gold Price] as a price on which the contract price will be based. The question is, “Do New York’s prices or even London’s prices represent true demand and supply?” No is the answer! Markets that genuinely do this may be called perfect because academically we would like to see this, but in the bulk of markets it is only the marginal supply and demand that prices the product along with speculators, day traders and dealers. Gold and silver are no exception. Until a credible alternative pricing mechanism is established that contractors and dealers accept, the markets in silver and gold will remain imperfect. With the Yuan contract “Fixing” in Shanghai coming this year, will that price become the alternative? Let’s see?