Julian Phillips’ daily roundup of what is happening in the gold and silver markets and the market forces driving them
The gold price remains under the influence of arbitrageurs working the gold price, the euro and the dollar exchange rates even after the announcement, with details of the E.C.B.’ quantitative easing policies. The immediate impact of this statement and following details was to see the euro continue to fall, as Draghi wants. The process of digesting the statements will continue today and fully impact next week. In the meantime, gold is now sitting just below $1,200 but not so far as to break down.
Please note that the dollar index has jumped this week to 96.80 a new high. But gold has just about kept pace with the rise, taking gold up against all other currencies.
Asia too has been lackluster this morning. The government of China announced yesterday that growth [GDP] will only target 7% this year. This number does not tell the full story at all. The government has built the infrastructure for the nation, now it needs to get its people to use it fully and develop a consumer [demand] driven economy that brings with it sustainable growth. This is the hard part. But from a gold investor’s standpoint this is positive news as it is the new wealth and the growing wealth of the current middle classes that will buy gold. Efforts to increase their wealth, as is the target of the government, will benefit gold hugely. Bear in mind a greater Chinese level of demand for gold will take it beyond the capacity of the gold market supplies to satisfy it.
With Modi’s government in India setting similar goals for his middle classes Indian demand for gold will steadily increase too.
ETFs and Markets
There were no sales or purchases from or into the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust yesterday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 760.799 tonnes and at 165.46 tonnes in the Gold Trust.
New York closed at $1,198.00 down $1.40 in a thin market still dominated by currency issues. Asia took the gold price up slightly to $1,198.90 before London pulled it down to $1,194. London then Fixed the gold price at $1,196.50 down $3.25 and in the euro, at €1,090.602 up €4.561, while the euro was at $1.0971 down nearly three quarters of a cent again. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,196.40 and in the euro at €1,093.25.
The silver price closed at $16.21 up 3 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $16.05. We feel that the silver price may well drop much faster than gold if the gold price falls further, but as Asian demand comes in we expect the silver price to recover quickly once more.
Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com