New York closed yesterday at $1,270.20 up $4.90. In Asia gold slipped slightly to $1,267.80 ahead of London’s. At the Fix gold was set at $1,264.00 up $0.24 and in the euro, at €1,103.641 down €3.067, while the euro was slightly stronger at $1.1453. Ahead of New York’s opening gold was trading in London at $1,265.00 and in the euro at €1,105.09.
The silver price closed at $17.30 down 6 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $17.27.
There were purchases of 5.376 tonnes of gold into the SPDR gold ETF but no change in the Gold Trust on Thursday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 773.305 and at 167.75 tonnes in the Gold Trust. The purchase yesterday was big enough to lift gold prices to current levels reflecting continued institutional interest in gold.
When we look at Europe, we see that specific political events don’t move precious metal prices by themselves. How those specific events impact the large monetary picture is what matters. Right now the euro is consolidating in the mid $1.14 area despite impending quantitative easing and the Greek debt negotiations, which should send the euro lower. That is, of course, provided the market is not discounting a Greek euro exit, which would strengthen the euro. As to Greece, the current chapter shows Germany in an avuncular manner putting the two Greek Ministers in their place, a big mistake, if they want the euro to remain intact. We do not believe the two leading Greek Ministers can take such a scolding quietly. In that scene, we now expect Greece, through these two politically committed men, to take that story up a notch.
With the Ukraine about to see its currency lose all credibility and the nation about to move to bankruptcy we are waiting to see if the U.S. and Eurozone are willing to take the Ukrainian civil war to an international one. Russia has made it clear it wants, at least, eastern Ukraine and will pay any price for it. This is well described by the exchange rate of the Ruble. The next week we see how far the West will go? It will affect the economic state of the Eurozone and may well eventually see a rupturing of gas supplies to Europe if the West takes the strife up to the next level. Only at that stage will it affect the gold price, we feel.
In China we are seeing the government increase liquidity in the system and aiding borrowers to lift growth. We cannot see China allowing deflation at this point in time, so will continue to follow the developed world by expanding their monetary base. We also expect to see them join the rest of the world by weakening the Yuan against the dollar. This continues to be gold positive.
Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com