Gold Today –Gold closed in New York at $1,321.10 on Friday after Thursday’s close at $1,322.50.  London is closed today.

• The $: € was at $1.1187 from $1.1293 Friday.
• The dollar index was at 95.60 from 94.63 Friday.
• The Yen was at 102.14 from Friday’s 100.45 against the dollar.
• The Yuan was weaker at 6.6687 from 6.6560 Friday.

 

• The Pound Sterling was at $1.3107 from Friday’s $1.3200.

 

Yuan Gold Fix

Trade Date	Contract	Benchmark Price AM	Benchmark Price PM
2016  08  29 2016  08  26	SHAU SHAU	283.32 284.19	283.68 284.44
Dollar equivalent @ $1: 6.680 $1: 6.6687		$1,319.20 $1,325.49	$1,320.87 $1,326.66

As you can see Shanghai followed New York with lower prices and the lowest Yuan we have ever seen.

LBMA price setting:  There was no gold price setting today as London was closed. On Friday the setting was at $1,324.90.

The gold price in the euro was set on Friday at €1,173.20.

Ahead of the opening in New York the gold price was reported as trading outside the markets at $1,320.00 and in the euro at €1,182.37 up from €1,175.48.  

Silver Today –The silver price closed in New York at $18.64 Friday UP from $18.56 Thursday.  

Price Drivers

All currencies are weaker today than the dollar which jumped strongly after Janet Yellen’s comments indicating that a rate hike case is now stronger. Of course, the media tries to put us back on tenterhooks for a September rate hike and will continue to do so until it is seen and then do the same before the next rate hike or the next meeting of the FOMC. It is understandable as it is the main global financial story and, as we now see, in the stronger dollar. Will the dollar rise through 100 on the Index? We think not, simply because neither the Fed nor the Treasury wants this.

But, once again, there was no physical content to the fall in the gold price. No sales took place from either the SPDR gold ETF or from the Gold Trust. This makes the fall in the gold and silver price vulnerable. On Friday the gold price did begin to recover fast and hit $1,336 after hitting a low of $1,322. But then it was slammed down again quickly in a short time back to $1,322 where it closed. All of this fall was due to High Frequency Trading. But no buyers came in to take it back higher after the expiry on the months Options and Futures. The best way to summarize the action is that dollar strength hit all currencies and gold, but not silver!

Ahead of New York’s opening while London was closed prices were marked down by the off-market traders who decided not to have a holiday. They took it to $1,316, but it rose again to $1,320 before New York opened.

This engineered fall has taken the gold price down a relatively long way, leaving it in a position where we expect some strong volatility and wide price moves this week.

We must remember that we are moving into the busiest quarter of the year for gold. This is certainly not the time to drive gold prices down unless you believe that the physical gold market is completely disjointed from the ‘paper’ gold market of COMEX.

Gold ETFs – In New York yesterday there were sales of 1.781 tonnes  from the SPDR gold ETF but a purchase of 0.30 of a tonne into the Gold Trust. This left their respective holdings at 956.588 tonnes and 224.90 tonnes.

Silver –Silver prices rose 9 cents on Friday confirming that silver prices were not affected by the ‘paper bear raid’. On Monday ahead of New York’s close the silver price held at $18.61.

Julian D.W. Phillips

GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance