Gold Today –The New York gold price closed Wednesday at $1,196.50 up from $1,187.80 up $8.70. Ahead of London’s opening, prices were quoted at $1,2o8. After London opened the gold price jumped to $1,217. Then the LBMA set it at $1,1223.25 down from $1,183.40 up $39.85 with the dollar index weaker at 95.51 down from 96.12 on Wednesday. The dollar continues very weak against the euro at $1.1322 down from $1.1260 on Wednesday. The gold price in the euro was set at €1,080.42 down from €1,050.98 up €29.44. Ahead of New York’s opening, the gold price was trading at $1,227.05 and in the euro at €1,083.87.
Silver Today –The silver price in New York closed at $15.28 up 5 cents at Wednesday’s close. Ahead of New York’s opening, the silver price stood at $15.60.
Yesterday we thought gold would be battling overhead resistance in a robust manner. We were surprised at just how strong gold is proving to be. Last night’s close at $1,208 described this well but this morning’s run up to $1,218 while China is closed and ahead of London’s opening well described the underlying U.S. view of gold now. Why? Because Janet Yellen came out and said what we have been saying in our newsletters that the Treasury does not want a strong dollar, was concerned about the impact of the global economy on the U.S. and would adopt a ‘wait and see’ mode, while keeping rate rises on the agenda.
The impact was for gold to vault through resistance to over $1,230! If gold holds this level gold has exited the bear market operating since 2013.
This confirmation by the Fed that they are concerned about the potential spillover from the global economy into the U.S. validates and consolidates the change of financial moods we have seen so far in 2016. If the Fed is ‘uncertain’ going forward, the rest of the world should be.
The foreign exchange markets across the world continue to upset the economic applecart as the dollar continues to fall, the ‘carry trade’ continues to unwind their long-held positions pushing cheap money back home to Japan and other very low interest rate places. The euro is now over 1.13: $1, the Yen is at 111 to the dollar and the Swiss Franc at o.9673 to it. The dollar index continues to plunge. We believe the dollar bull market is in retreat if not over!
We believe we have passed the time when nations could come together to re-arrange the globe’s exchange rate system to a more stable one. Now, nations are blatantly acting in their own interests, to the exclusion of other nations. A global monetary system cannot act in a stable manner in such a climate. With a decaying global economy adding to the pressures on currency exchange rates we foresee growing volatility and instability. We do expect central bank gold reserves to be harnessed in attempts to ease such instability, keeping many parts of the global economy liquid.
Silver – Silver will be stronger than gold now.
Julian D.W. Phillips