Where will Western Buyers find Gold with Asia All-Consuming?

The New York gold price closed Monday at $1,108.30 up from $1,096.80 up $11.50. In Asia on Tuesday, it rose over $1,115.35 before London’s LBMA set it at $1,114.70 up from $1,103.70 with the dollar index down slightly at 99.36 from 99.43 on Monday. The euro was up at $1.0831 from $1.0817 against the dollar. The gold price in the euro was set at €1,029.18 up from €1,020.34. Ahead of New York’s opening, the gold price was trading at $1,113.20 and in the euro at €1,027.46.  

The silver price in New York closed at $14.24 up 19 cents at Monday’s close.  Ahead of New York’s opening, the silver price stood at $14.37.

Price Drivers

Monday saw no purchases or sales to or from the SPDR gold ETF and none into or from the Gold Trust. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are now at 664.172 tonnes and at 161.82 tonnes in the Gold Trust. Nevertheless, it is clear that U.S. investors are turning back to physical gold slowly but surely as resistance crumbles. With gold starting London’s day over $1,115 the overhead resistance is nearly out of the way. The big short positions on COMEX in gold look very vulnerable and we expect them to run to cover those shorts.  

What’s more, with the Fed’s two day meeting this week, no rate hike is expected. The market is moving steadily towards the opinion that in 2016 either one or two rate hikes may happen, leaving the dollar inclined to weaken.

While Mario Draghi is determined to achieve a 2% inflation rate it will be achieved [if it is] against a backdrop of declining growth, a dangerous state of affairs that has done extreme damage to currency credibility in the past. We do not believe that currencies will be allowed to reflect fundamental weakness such as this, in a world where competitive devaluations are the route of exchange rates. To this group we add the dollar. We do see trouble in the E.U. that will turn Europeans to gold as well as, and more than, it did last year.

In China preparations for the Chinese New Year on the 8th Feb are well underway. For gold this represents the time of the year of peak demand. Already this year demand from the Shanghai Gold Exchange has surged in line with the huge upliftment of the Chinese middle classes.

The trouble is that if we see developed world demand for physical gold return, where will they find it, now that Asia is all consuming?

Silver is continues to be robust and on the run higher.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

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