The joy of gold

The New York gold price closed Monday at $1,095.00 down from $1,102.50. In Asia it was moved to $1,095.2 but London held it there and the LBMA price was set at $1,094.85 down from $1,104.70 with the dollar index higher at 98.94 up from 98.52 on Monday. The euro was at $1.0856 down from $1.0895 up against the dollar. The gold price in the euro was set at €1,008.52 down from €1,013.95. Ahead of New York’s opening, the gold price was trading at $1,092.70 and in the euro at €1,006.31.  

The silver price in New York closed at $13.88 down 5 cents.  Ahead of New York’s opening the silver price stood at $13.87.

Price Drivers

Monday saw purchases of 2.083 tonnes into the SPDR gold ETF but none into the Gold Trust. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are now at 651.677 tonnes and at 160.17 tonnes in the Gold Trust.  The move into gold via these ETFs will continue as the volatile start to 2016 continues to create uncertainty in global markets.

When a respectable bank such as the Bank of Scotland tells its clients it foresees a deflationary crisis and a ‘cataclysmic year’ and they must ‘Sell Everything” except Treasuries and Bunds global investors have reason to become very alarmed and turn to gold.  

Why gold? Even Bunds are tied to the euro and Treasuries to the dollar. We see 2016 being “the year of unstable currency markets”. Analysts watch economies and expect these to translate through to exchange rates and then the global economy. What we see are exchange rates, independent of economies, moving dramatically and impacting the foundation of global economy, in which is deflationary forces are weakening the entire monetary system.

Make no mistake the start to 2016 seen so far, is only the beginning. The ‘race to the bottom’ by different currencies we saw in the last two years is going to come home to roost this year and onwards. We see greater attempts to control markets and manage them ‘in the interests of each nation’, far more than seen before.

It is against this backdrop that gold will perform. Let’s be clear, gold is both an asset and a currency. The joy of gold is that is tied to no national currency or government or economy and will move against all currencies just as it has done so far in 2016. We expect that 2016 will be like no other year since 2008!

What has gone under-reported is the news that the Chinese ICBC bank’s leasing of the Deutsche Bank London gold vaults and why. We see that as a huge piece of news.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – and 

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