On Monday New York closed at $1,135.50 up $1.10. The dollar was stronger at $1.1335 at the close up from $1.1496, against the euro, with the dollar Index weaker at 95.94 down from 96.07 from Monday. The LBMA gold price was set at $1,141.90 today. The euro equivalent was €1,o14.26. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading at $1,143.55 and in the euro at €1,015.54. The silver price closed at $14.64 up 5 cents over Monday’s close in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening today it was trading at $14.63.

Price Drivers

Today London re-opens after the Bank Holiday weekend and we see the beginning of the ‘gold season’. Sometimes it takes a little time before it sparks into life but with European holiday makers back at their desks with carefully nurtured sun tans, the focus turns to the festive season and preparations for it.

In India the harvesting is under way bringing tax free profits that find their way into property and gold.

Today saw Asia take gold up $7 before London opened. As we detailed yesterday, the gold and silver markets have fundamentals which are going to take it in a direction that is different from most global financial markets. While we do expect the balance of the year to see volatility throughout global financial markets, we see these two precious metals acting very differently.  

With confidence in currencies and market stability waning gold & silver performed well in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. This pattern is expected to continue.

China wants the Yuan to gain the reputation the dollar currently has, as a central global currency. To that end they have now made it expensive to speculate on the Yuan. With all the controls the Chinese authorities have imposed on their markets, all they have done is to inadvertently reinforce the Chinese faith in gold as a foundational asset for financial security.

A lesson from the past shows that in 1933 gold was not confiscated because of the need to boost money supply but to prevent it competing with the dollar, inside the U.S. Today, one government cannot dominate the gold market, leading to a situation where gold is needed as an alternative to currencies in global dealings. As volatility in exchange rates continue, this need will grow!

Yesterday saw no sales or purchases into or from the SPDR gold ETF but a sale of 0.9 of a tonne from the Gold Trust

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com