Julian Phillips’ take on the drivers of the gold market ahead of the major US holiday.
New York closed at $1,165.60 down $2.90. Asia and London took it back up to $1,169.50. The dollar was 0.60 of a cent weaker at $1.1054 and the dollar Index was lower at 95.93 down from 96.37. The LBMA gold price was set this morning at $1,168.25 up $3.95. The euro equivalent was €1,052.67 up €1.67 Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,168.60 and in the euro at €1,053.03.
The silver price fell to $15.65 up 6 cent in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.67.
Unbelievably the I.M.F. has put its foot in it! The report just issued clarifies that Greece needs to be given 40 yrs to repay its debt and needs lower interest rates and for a portion at least of its debt to be written off if it is to return to growth. Even then it will still have debt to GDP of 150%. For those Greeks who understand this, a No! vote to the past offer from the E.U. seems necessary to get the better deal one like that of the IMF’. So the story still has a long way to go. Nevertheless, the markets may react to the vote if a No! rules the day.
What is of greater importance to the gold and silver price is the behavior of the Chinese equity markets. After the hype that money may be finding its way from gold into the equity markets, that money is leaving the market in droves. The Chinese have always been gamblers and seem to have changed the equity market into a casino. The new rich middle classes are seeing a reinforcement of their faith in gold in a year that may see imports of gold higher than in 2013, their record year. As Chinese middle classes grow continuously, a good portion of their savings [and the Chinese are great savers] finds its way into gold. At some point, that demand will reach a level where it does spill over directly into London and New York and impacts the current low prices.
In India where the monsoons are now generous, there remains two months before their ‘gold seasons’ begin again.
Meanwhile, the gold price is bumping along on the bottom at the mercy of U.S. dealers and speculators. Yesterday the data on employment and on jobs was disappointing so they stepped back, at which point the gold price rose slightly.
On Thursday there were sales of 1.789 tonnes of gold from the SPDR gold ETF and 0.39 of a tonne from the Gold Trust. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 709.65 tonnes and at 167.40 tonnes in the Gold Trust.
Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com