Julian Phillips’ latest analysis of what is happening in the global gold markets and what is driving prices
New York closed at $1,170.90 down $6.10 on Friday, again in very thin volumes. Today sees the dollar slightly weaker at $1.1126 down a cent against the euro with the dollar index firmer at 96.29 against Friday’s 95.67. The LBMA Gold Price was set at $1,173.40 down $2.50 and the equivalent euro price was €1,054.93 up from €1,047.11 on Friday. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,175.00 and in the euro at €1,056.37.
The silver price rose slightly to $16.10 down 8 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $16.10.
On Friday we again saw thin trading was in London and New York. Because of this we expect the gold price to remain volatile as traders dominate the market, not investors.
Last week also saw a virtual absence of Asian demand from London and New York as it seems they expect prices to fall further. We do expect Asian demand to come in at lower levels, without chasing prices, as they look to take the gold currently available off the market. Pushing prices up does not lead to more gold available in such markets. If this were the case we believe Asia would chase prices.
With Greece no longer the center of attention, the G7 meeting is being pushed as the item of the week. These meeting have a history of being of little relevance to world affairs, allowing politicians to meander through spring grasses in Switzerland and making statements of little impact on world affairs. Certainly we don’t see the meeting as being of importance to the gold and silver prices.
We do reiterate our feelings that in the current market prices can become extremely volatile and can move both ways quickly often reversing just as quickly. Volatility will dominate.
On Friday, we saw a trader sell 1.193 tonnes of gold from the SPDR gold ETF and a purchase of 0.3 of a tonne into the Gold Trust. This number has been seen several times in the last two months, often reversing to a purchase on the way up. With such thin volumes in the market such a sale can impact the gold price, but then again a small purchase could take the gold price back up again. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 708.698 tonnes and at 167.01 tonnes in the Gold Trust.
While we remain in ‘no widows or orphans’ territory we are very close to the next line of support. If we are correct then expect two-way price volatility this week.
Silver at these levels should become very sensitive to even small moves in the gold price. We expect larger volatility in the silver price as it sprints higher or lower than the gold price. Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com