Julian Phillips’ views on the key drivers at play in the global gold and silver markets.
We write this on the bank holiday weekend in the U.K. so no action from there. Asia did very little to the gold price, which held at Friday’s level of $1,204.50. The dollar was stronger today with the euro trading at $1.0979 against the euro and the dollar index standing at 96.32. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,204.50 and in the euro at €1,097.19.
The silver price closed at $17.05 down 15 cents over Friday’s level. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $17.05.
Friday saw no sales or purchases into or from the SPDR Gold ETF, or any from or into the Gold Trust. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 715.260 tonnes and at 166.60 tonnes in the Gold Trust.
On a quiet Monday, what can we expect that could affect the price of gold this week? We believe that the main influence will come from the IMF announcement on the inclusion of the Chinese Yuan in the composition of the Special Drawing Right. It may not happen immediately simply because the Yuan is ‘pegged’ to the dollar and may well continue so for the rest of the year. In October the announcement will be made official as China initiates two-way traffic in Hong Kong in the Yuan. This is part of the build-up to the year’s end when the decisions will be made ‘official after the final announcement in October. Before then we expect a Yuan ‘Gold Fix’ to be set in motion in Shanghai.
While these announcements might be met will a quiet reception, we feel that they will be structural changes that change the shape of the gold market over time. This evolution will affect the day-to-day behavior of the gold price in 2016.
While we do not think that the Greek tragedy will impact the value of the euro until its conclusion, the Finance Minister of Greece has announced that there are no more funds with which to pay the IMF when the next repayment is due. It is becoming clearer now as the ‘negotiations’ move forward with so little action coming from the Greek government, despite their oft repeated statements that a deal will be made soon, that they are convinced that the E.U. finance ministers will, under no circumstances eject them from the euro or the E.U. no matter what. So, all they have to do is wait until they have to default and the E.U. Ministers have to bail them out again. It is simply Greece calling the bluff of the Finance Ministers. So we have to wait until it is officially announced that they have defaulted.
The silver price is still holding above $17.00, but only just. With the euro price of gold about to move over €1,100, silver will rise with it in the euro. See silver in other currencies and it is performing very well indeed!
Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com