Gold testing overhead resistance, silver running ahead of gold

Gold TodayGold closed in New York at $1,240.30 up from $1,240.30 on Friday. On Monday morning in Asia, it jumped to $1,253. London pulled it back to $1,247.35 to see the LBMA price setting at $1,247.25 up from $1,235.00 on Friday.

The dollar index is slightly lower at 94.22 down from 94.36 Friday. The dollar is almost the same against the euro at $1.1391 up from $1.1390 on Friday.

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,095.23 up from €1,084.28 Friday.

Ahead of New York’s opening, the gold price moved back up to over $1,250 again and in the euro at around €1,097  

Silver Today –The silver price closed in New York at $15.34 up from $15.21 up from on Friday. Ahead of New York’s opening the silver price stood at $15.77.

Price Drivers

The undertone in the gold market is strong and pushing higher. Asian prices saw a jump this morning of over $10 and the jump mostly held in London as the dollar continued to slowly but surely weaken.  Janet Yellen’s comments continue to be digested as many institutions and commentators are having difficulty in accepting that the dollar will not strengthen and that two or less interest rate hikes are coming out of the U.S. What Mrs Yellen and the Fed have done which is also finding difficulty in being absorbed is the recognition that the U.S. economic recovery is vulnerable to outside influences including a strong dollar. It’s a culture shock to dollar hegemony and the U.S. leading the way economically around the globe.

The trading range of both gold and silver tells us a strong move is imminent as it breaks up out of the pennant it has been in for some time. Now overhead resistance will be tested still further in the days to come.

India – The government of India has formed a sub-committee under former Chief Economic Advisor Ashok Lahiri to study the imposition of the 1% sales tax on gold and silver in addition to the existing 10% already imposed and come up with suggestions. The jeweler’s strike is now completing its first month with no sign of respite.  We don’t think anything will change because now, the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC), has imposed 15% ad valorem duty on several items including gold and silver that are brought into the country by travellers.

Consequently, both demand and the price of jewelry are soaring as the wedding season approaches. In the unique Indian way the business will go on, government or no government. Work has gone underground to meet the lucrative wedding season demand, with the wedding season ‘mahurat Sawas’ arriving at the end of this month. Officially, the strike continues. Gold is being sold in the market without the customs duty. Traders added are making jewellery at Rs 28,500 per 10 grams [which equates to $1,380].  No doubt supplies are actually freely available from smugglers, who supply a significant proportion of gold imported into India.

Repeat: As we said yesterday, in our opinion the markets in gold and silver are rather like a cat getting ready to pounce. We expect the moves to be higher, but it could need more days of consolidation such as we have seen in the last week.

Gold ETFs - We saw sales of 1.783 tonnes from the SPDR gold ETF but no change in the Gold Trust on Friday. This leaves their holdings at 817.813 and 187.26 tonnes in the SPDR & Gold Trust respectively.  

Silver – The silver price is now beginning to run ahead of gold and should do so as gold rises.

Julian D.W. Phillips | | StockBridge Management Alliance


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