New York closed at $1,103.50 down from $1,107.50 on Thursday. In Asia it rose to $1,110.00 again, before London opened. The LBMA price setting fixed it at $1,107.70 up 30 cents over yesterday’s LBMA price setting. The dollar Index was stronger yesterday and rose to 98.01 up from 97.94 at the close of New York. The dollar was slightly weaker at $1.0879 down from $1.0861 against the euro. In the euro the fixing was €1,018.29 down from €1,019.71. At New York’s opening gold was trading in the euro at €1,018.85 and at $1,108.25.
The silver price closed at $15.00 down 9 cents over Thursday’s close. At New York’s opening, silver was trading at $15.05.
Price Drivers
Technically, we repeat what we said yesterday that the gold price is still pointing lower. However, for the first time in several days the gold price has stopped falling and Asia, for the second day running, is pushing back against the New York market. But still we remain in a high risk area with the possibility of a hefty bounce or continued fall.
Thursday saw sales from the SPDR gold ETF of another 8.337 tonnes making over 24 tonnes sold this week but nothing was sold from the Gold Trust leaving their holdings at 671.768 tonnes and at 160.30 in the Gold Trust. This was a heavy selling day and the cause of the fall in the gold price. Friday is the busiest day in the gold week, so we may well see heavy physical sales again in New York.
Yesterday’s postponement of the rate hike in the U.K. is a caution to those who expect a December rate hike in the U.S. The U.S. and U.K. central banks want markets to expect rate hikes as this tempers speculation and asset bubbles, but the global situation remains dubious. Rate hikes strengthen currencies and neither the U.K. nor the U.S. wants to see their currencies strengthen to the point they lose international trade competitiveness. Hence we do not expect a rate hike until 2016. A dollar index of over 100 is just not in the interests of the U.S. This impacts the U.S. & U.K. gold markets heavily as the gold price is being pushed down by those markets in expectations of a stronger dollar.
Silver prices may stabilize today. We emphasize may!
Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters - www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com