China govt buying implications for gold price

On Wednesday New York closed at $1,097.20 up another $1.60. The dollar was a cent stronger at $1.0963, with the dollar Index stronger at 97.31 up from 96.64. This morning the LBMA gold price was set at $1,085.65 down $1.10. The euro equivalent was €989.43 down €1.80 on yesterday. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,087.00 and in the euro at €992.11.

The silver price closed at $14.82 up 14 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $14.67.

After the Fed’s almost neutral announcement after its 2-day meeting the dollar went stronger and dealers marked down the gold price in line with that strength. It had rallied initially after the FOMC statement which did not refer to any timing for a rate hike, but the media continues to  quote Janet Yellen confirming there would be a rate hike this year. Despite the inadequacies of the ongoing guessing of the timing of a rate hike, it persists and dealers adjust their books slightly, so as not to be caught off guard. Hence the move down in gold is entirely due to currency considerations.

There have been no sales or purchases of gold into or from the SPDR gold ETF or Gold Trust.  The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 680.154 tonnes and 163.55 tonnes [down 0.30 of a tonne] in the Gold Trust.

A trader in Chinese shares that specialized in shorting them, had to leave the country and a colleague of his was imprisoned some time ago.  This amply demonstrates the dangers of going against government policy in China. With the crash in share prices there and the government’s support for the market now more than visible, many feel that the opportunities there are now to the upside.

Our comment that it may well be arms of government that have picked up the gold dumped in China two weeks ago, may well carry implications for the downside on the gold price. If it did indeed happen, then we do not expect much more selling in the bear raid manner in the future. We are watching with great interest to see if more attempts will be made to hammer the gold price soon.

If they don’t then we can expect that any positive news for gold will have a positive impact on the gold price.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters - and

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