Gold price attention swings back to dollar strength

New York closed yesterday at $1,157.90 down $5.10 with Asia and London taking it down to $1,155. The dollar was stronger at $1.0992 up from $1.1147 against the euro with the dollar Index at 96.94 up from 95.87 before London opened.  The LBMA gold price was set this morning at $1,153.20 down $1.75. The euro equivalent was €1,045.51 down €2.38. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,154.00 and in the euro at €1,046.14.

The silver price rose to $15.50 down 8 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening itoday t was trading at $15.36.

The attention of the gold price has, as we said yesterday swung back to a stronger dollar and away from the Greek tragedy. The deal between Greece and the E.U. needs to be ratified in the Greek Parliament before it is a reality, but we see no danger to the euro from Greece any more.

Dramatically, it seems that Iran and the U.S. have reached a deal, at last. While the oil price has and will fall because of this we do not expect Iranian oil to hit the market, any more than it is doing at present until the middle of next year. Even then it will only be at around 15% of its peak production of 3.5 million barrels a day. Nevertheless, while there is an oversupply, there is more likelihood of prices falling then rising until then. The deal does seem to open the way for Iran to take a higher profile in the fight against ISIS, but will worsen relations between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. We do not see this leading to a change in Saudi Arabia’s use of the dollar to receive payments for oil. If this happened it would be positive for gold prices.

The most important event in the last month for gold and silver has been the fall in the euro price of gold when the prospect of Greece leaving the E.U. was real. Of great interest to all is the strength of the dollar and just how far it will rise and the euro fall. It could easily fall to par if the U.S. does not prevent that. The U.S. recovery cannot remain intact if the euro falls too far!

A look at the gold price in other currencies also shows its resilience, while in the dollar it has been in a +$50 [5%] trading range for the last 18 months. Professional investors in the U.S. have been long of gold in weak currencies such as the euro and the Yen profitably so. We see this as continuing.

Silver will likely recover faster than gold now.   ,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters - and


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