Gold in limbo as Greece and E.U. hit impasse

Julian Phillips’ latest assessment of the short term market for gold and silver.

The movement in the gold and silver market has been so small it would be foolish to read too much into the moves we see. Essentially the gold and silver prices continue to move sideways. Yes, dealers and speculators will try to squeeze some movement out of these prices but the lack of physical speculation and investment sees prices continuing to move sideways. We expect this will describe the week well, unless the market is caught off guard by some big news.

No matter how much we want different news, we continue to see Greece push its way to center stage. The weekend meetings continued to point to no agreement and there are 15 days to the end of the month when a far too large payment is due from Greece, which it can’t pay. The Finance Minister tells all that without a reduction in the debt, Greece can’t pay. So don’t expect any partial payments.

To understand where we go from here, we put ourselves in the shoes of each side of the issue: -

Greece won’t lower pensions because they don’t have the mandate to do so and so many unemployed voters are living off their parents. They are in the same boat as they were before they joined the E.U. so there is nothing to lose by leaving and at least a generation of poverty ahead of them if they stay.

The E.U. can’t compromise or they will have to do the same for Portugal, Spain possibly France and Italy thereafter?

The issue is therefore not Greece exiting, but political face saving. This bodes ill for the end of the next fortnight. How is this relevant for precious metals? At the moment last week’s expectation of a weaker euro if no settlement is reached and a stronger euro if a settlement is achieved appears to be changing to; let’s do nothing until the end of the next fortnight. We then expect to see a stronger euro if Greece exits the E.U. and the euro.

There were sales of gold from the SPDR gold ETF of 0.241 of a tonne of gold on Friday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 703.984 tonnes and at 167.01 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters - and


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