Gold rises as naked shorts rush for cover

Julian Phillips’ latest update on what’s happening in the gold and silver markets and what’s driving the price short term.

Gold closed at $1,202.40 up $23.80 on Monday in New York. Asia held it there overnight as did London this morning. The LBMA Gold price was set at $1,201.40 up $18.65. The euro equivalent stood at €1,100.69 up €9.07 while the dollar was weaker at $1.0916 down from $1.0832 against the euro. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading higher in London at $1,201.90 and in the euro at €1,099.44.

The silver price closed at $16.38 up 66 cents on Monday. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $16.37.

As we keep highlighting, Asian demand is pulling stock off the market, so when COMEX shorts the gold market it does not trigger stop loss selling, but, as short sellers found out, they have to pay up to close their positions. This is what happened yesterday when the gold price rocketed back over $1,200. It did look like the gold price would be forced down by more short selling, but this did not happen, leaving the shorts naked and rushing to cover themselves.

The dollar index fell to 96.53 down from 97.06 on Monday with an ongoing, slipping dollar leaving the euro at $1.0919. There were sales of 3.282 tonnes of gold from the SPDR gold E.T.F. but none from the Gold Trust on Monday. These sales were nowhere near enough to prevent the very rapid, large recovery of the gold price. We expected further falls and do so today as the short sellers seem unlikely to give up until we see a trend change in the short term. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 739.065 tonnes and at 165.58 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Greece’s Finance Minister Varoufakis has been taken out of the spotlight it appears, because the two sides have stopped communicating. With the Prime Minister stating on television that it is likely that the “Greek People” must decide the way forward, a default is imminent. If not then an election would not be needed. Essentially, the Greek people would be being asked if Greece should leave the euro and Eurozone. They would not be asked to accept austerity after electing Tsipras’s manifesto in the last elections. We see this as meaning the Drachma’s return. We don’t see this as having affected the gold price, but will, once a conclusion is reached.

With the dollar’s weakening the gold price rose yesterday, so a stronger Eurozone minus its weakest link is, in our opinion, is likely to lead to a stronger euro. This is not what the Eurozone wants and in particular not what Draghi of the E.C.B. wants!

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters - and


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