Continuing strong Asian demand has gold bucking the technical trend

Julian Phillips’ commentary on what is currently driving the gold and silver markets - and market action overnight and this morning.

Isn’t it infuriating? The Technical picture has no discernible pattern at the moment, but pointed down to most people, yesterday. But prices went up instead, as Asian demand filtered through constantly, pushing short positions to close once again. To illustrate just how strong Asian gold demand is the Swiss reported exports of re-refined gold [in the 1 kg range] of 46.4 tonnes of gold to China and a larger number of 72.5 tonnes of gold to India up from 23.6 tonnes and 27.1 tonnes of gold respectively for February. Please note that this was not for a specific festival [the main one was in April] but a general stocking up. This increase in tonnage has much more to do with low prices that went to gold’s low of $1,143. The demand from China was not festival driven either.

Traders with an eye on currencies saw the need to lift the gold price, when others felt the opposite. So we are seeing the waters of the gold market roil and make them turbid [boiling and unclear].  So where do we go from here? We can only say, as we said above, in the forecast.

Today E.U. Finance Ministers meet in Riga to discuss Greece. It is these Ministers who will decide on the matters so Merkel’s meeting with Tsipras did not change the likelihood that no deal will be reached there. It’s the accountants that hold the power not the politicians at this moment, but at the end of the day we feel the politicians will win out. This story will drag out all the way, it now seems, right through June. The exchange rate of the $:€ will not be affected by Greece until a conclusion is reached one way or the other. Until then it is all about the dollar and its strength.

The dollar index fell to 97.18 after yesterday’s 98.16 with a stronger euro at $1.0833 now.  Gold is back in consolidation mode for the weekend, it seems.

There were no purchases or sales of gold into the SPDR gold E.T.F. or the Gold Trust on Wednesday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 742.347 tonnes and at 165.58 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Markets yesterday and this morning

New York closed at $1,194.70 up $7.90 on Thursday in NY. Asia held it there before the LBMA Gold price was set at $1,192.15 up $4.90. The euro equivalent stood at €1,099.87 down €5.84 while the dollar was stronger at $1.0834 against yesterday’s $1.0742. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading lower in London at $1,192.30 and in the euro at €1,101.74.

The silver price closed at $15.89 up 10 cents on Thursday. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.87.


Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters - and


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