‘Solid’ gold at below $1200 denotes positive tone

Gold recovered to day back above $1200 despite dollar strength.  Julian Phillips’ look at the gold and silver markets and price drivers.

New York closed yesterday at $1,195.10 down $8.10. Asia left it there but London quickly lifted it up to $1,203.40. The LBMA Gold price was set at $1,201.90 up $5.90 on yesterday’s level. The euro equivalent stood at €1,132.59 up €18.22 reflecting the rising dollar. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading higher in London at $1,203.30 and in the euro at €1,134.65.

The silver price closed at $16.20 down 32 cents yesterday. Ahead of New York’s opening it had recovered and was trading at $16.53.  The silver price is telling us that gold will fall shortly. But at the end of the day silver will continue to go wherever gold will lead it.

The euro is hitting new lows at $1.0595 in London’s morning while the gold price rose, showing that gold did not move on currency adjustments, as it did yesterday. We note that gold is rising in the dollar, the strongest currency in the world at present. Apart from the dollar strengthening across the board [the dollar index is at 99.31 up from 97.24 last Friday] and influencing gold on quiet days, it is clear that demand for gold is solid below $1,200. Overall there is now a positive tone in the gold market. It is only now reflecting in the silver market though.

There were purchases of 2.985 tonnes of gold into the SPDR gold ETF but no change in the Gold Trust yesterday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 736.044 tonnes and at 165.28 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

It surprised most people to see that Greece did pay the I.M.F. its due money. But the huge bills coming at Greece in the next few weeks may be another story. We are puzzled at the almost blithe confidence on the Greek Prime and Finance ministers faces when they appear in the media. They must know something we don’t? They remain convinced that they will be given a deal by the E.U. or are certain on the way forward. What will that deal do to the euro? Markets are betting it will rise, just as they believe that it will fall, if they don’t. We have a contrary view on that.

In under a fortnight an important gold buying festival of Akshaya Tritiya starts in India. In the run-up to this we expect Indian gold demand to be strong.

In China yesterday it was a quiet day for gold, but this does not change the picture of ongoing and slowly rising demand for gold from there.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters - www.silverforecaster.com and www.goldforecaster.com


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