SPDR gold ETF sales aimed at lowering gold price ahead of Fed

Julian Phillips sees sales out of the SPDR gold ETF yesterday as being placed in such a way as to attempt to drive the gold price lower - but no strong move achieved.

New York closed yesterday at $1,148.50 down $6.40 with Asia holding it there and then London fixing it at $1,149.00, down $5.75 and in the euro, at €1,080.497, down €7.03, while the euro was slightly better at $1.0634.  Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,151.00 and in the euro at €1,084.21.

The silver price closed at $15.56 down 1 cent. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.53. The silver price continues to be steady as it waits for the gold price to give direction.

There were sales of 2.687 tonnes of gold from the SPDR gold ETF but none from the Gold Trust on Tuesday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 747.983 tonnes and at 164.02 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

The sales occurred twice in the day and were conducted in a way that suggests the seller wanted lower gold prices. The first sale saw the gold price tumble but recover quickly and the second sale hold it at lower levels. It is currently trying to bounce, but we do not expect much action before the statement of the Fed today. The fall was not the ‘strong move’ we are expecting. That strong move is still to come and can go either way.

The market’s attention is now on the Fed’s statement this afternoon. The Fed is clearly focused on the consumer and the financial markets that affect it, including wage growth. The financial markets are almost willing interest rates higher oblivious to the consumer, it seems. We do expect to see U.S. pressure on the gold price, but to what extent remains to be seen. We repeat what we have said before and that is that the Fed will prefer to be too late, rather than too early to raise rates. If this proves correct we may see the statement have little effect on precious metals after the initial moves pushing them lower, prompted by speculators.

While we watch the Chinese Yuan hold at the 6.24 level we believe that the Chinese authorities responsible for the exchange rate are waiting to see if further dollar strength is to be seen. If so, we do expect the ‘peg’ to be lowered, to protect the Chinese export markets. If the euro bounces against the dollar, then we expect no Chinese action, yet!

Please note that the words, “Gold Fixing” will be replaced by the words “LBMA Gold Price” on Friday. We will give details of the new process in our next issue of our newsletters. The silver price continues to be steady as it waits for the gold price to give direction. Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters - www.silverforecaster.com  and www.goldforecaster.com

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