Will Indian budget deliver for gold?

Julian Phillips’ commentary on the gold and silver markets overnight and this morning and some of the issues moving precious metals prices upwards and downwards in the current environment.

New York closed yesterday at $1,208.40 up $3.80. London Fixed the gold price at $1,205.00 down $15.00 and in the euro, at €1,073.592 down €0.68, while the euro was down almost 1.5 cents at $1.1224. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,208.10 and in the euro at €1,076.35.

The silver price closed at $16.54 no change on yesterday. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $16.50.  The price has fallen back after jumping with gold and now holds the same price as it did the day before. With its trading range narrowing we could be on the brink of a large move in both gold and silver.

There were no purchases or sales into or from the SPDR gold ETF or from or into the Gold Trust on Thursday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 771.249 tonnes and at 166.43 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Ahead of London’s opening Asia took the price slightly higher once more, but without chasing prices.

We expect New York to do very little on the physical side today, leaving any action in the hands of traders and speculators moving prices with the dollar and euro. Even in London we expect the physical market to be relatively quiet in the absence of a major financial event.

All golden eyes are on tomorrow’s Indian budget and the potential lowering of import duties. Bear in mind that Asian buyers are not happy to buy while prices are falling and usually wait for prices to form a foundation level. As we have reported often, they are not interested in the profit potential, only ensuring they don’t pay too much for their gold. Looking at the performance of the gold price over the last two years, we see the price has formed a solid foundation from $1,180 to the current price.

The price at the moment stands at a critical juncture at $1,200, technically. The direction it takes from here is the direction it is likely to take in the longer term. This makes any gold related news more important than it would normally be because of the increased sensitivity of the gold and silver prices, at present. So this is the time gold and silver investors should pay particularly close attention to the gold market and all its facets.

Our golden eyes were drawn to the strength of the dollar yesterday as the dollar index rose to 95.12. We are mindful of the growing level of objection to the strong dollar and expect further rises to be accompanied by action to slow or stem the rise.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters - www.silverforecaster.com and www.goldforecaster.com

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