Next two weeks a watershed for gold and silver

Julian Phillips’ latest analysis of what’s going on in the gold and silver markets and the geopolitical price drivers that are, or should be, impacting prices.

New York closed at Friday at $1,228.50 up $6.50. In Asia the gold price lifted last night to $1,237.00. London took it down slightly after which it was Fixed at $1,233.50 up $7.75 and in the euro, at €1,081.117 up €8.016, while the euro was slightly weaker at $1.1409. Ahead of New York’s opening gold was trading in London at $1,234.10 and in the euro at €1,080.65.

Meanwhile the silver price closed Friday at $17.29 up 43 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening today it was trading at $17.35.

There were sales of 2.79 tonnes of gold from the SPDR gold ETF but none from the Gold Trust on Friday, but gold prices bounced up to the 50-day moving average. It rose through that, in Asia, the week before the Chinese Lunar New Year on Thursday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 771.513 and at 167.03 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Last week Chinese demand remained strong as huge levels of demand are being seen there at consumer levels and at bank levels. We should point out that while consumer demand peaks this time of the year demand from the banks will only be interrupted during the holiday itself.  Thereafter we hit month end, when several important events for gold kick in.

Attention returns to Greece again this week and next as the political shows continue. What is not understood by most is the confidence and strength that accrues to a desperate debtor when he cannot repay and things can’t get worse. The creditors in this case face the worst dangers because in such a situation they stand to lose the debt entirely. In this case they may not see that but they may well lose control over it.

To us it appears that the Prime and Finance Ministers of Greece need to ensure their political futures and that of their parties. A half hearted easing of the terms of the bailout will not do it. It needs to be dramatic. So we put it to you that the greatest kudos is to be gained by the debtor re-writing the terms of the debt, as they feel it should be.  We discuss this at length in the current issue of the Gold Forecaster and point not only to how it can be done, but the way it can be done to give Greece a booming future, both commercially and financially. The consequences of what we expect around the 28th February for the Eurozone will be far more damaging than most think, on a different front to the one being put forward by most.

The silver price will likely continue to react strongly to any gold price move, particularly on the upside for silver investors are still waiting for a clear strong direction to be given by gold. Once it is given, then we will see long-term investors move in and not just day-traders.

The next two weeks should prove watershed periods for both gold and silver.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – and

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