Chasing the 2015 Black Swans

What happens if Putin turns off the gas or the Euro starts to collapse, or other potential Black Swan events. An analysis of some of the changes and dangers for the global economy in 2015 and a view that gold remains the best currency for a time of uncertainty.

I would commend everyone to read the New Year prediction letter from Black Swan plc’s Richard Poulden linked at the end of this article. It is possibly a controversial piece, but also enlightening in its detailed look at the rise of the BRICs and Chinese driven multinational development funds which could usurp the positions of the USA, the IMF and the World Bank.

Richard introduced the piece in an email thus:

“I attach the usual view of politics and economics for 2014 as history and a few predictions for 2015 from the crystal ball. I would urge you to read this on the screen if you are still able to do so, unless you live in the EU. In the latter case you should save it up, print it, burn it and then gather round the glowing embers to warm yourselves if you impose further sanctions on Russia and Putin turns off the gas.”

It is also worth reading Richard’s previous year end letters on .  As is the case with many such prognostications, some of his past predictions have been remarkably accurate, others rather further off the mark, but always his views have been forthright and enlightening and should hold a serious place in analysis of the global economy and of gold.

As he has been for the past three years, he remains bullish on gold but recognises that some of his earlier prognostications were a little premature although he hasn’t been one to predict a runaway gold price. This time around he reckons that ultimately gold is the best currency for a time of uncertainty, and he still “remains committed to gold as a way of hedging against the massive market uncertainties that have built up since 2009 and the inflation which will in the end follow QE.”

To read the latest Black Swan 2015 New Year letter, click on this link – you will find it an interesting, and well worthwhile, read.

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