Gold price 1 year forecasts from LBMA plus our own and gold price volatility

Two more of my articles published on sharpspixley.com which look at exit poll precious metals price predictions from the LBMA’s Shenzhen conference, along with our own estimates of where prices will b e in one year”s time, plus a report on  the daily gold price volatility at the moment.  To read full articles click on the titles:

Delegates To the LBMA/LPPM Shenzhen conference have forecast their precious metals prices for a year ahead, and we have added our own forecasts to the mix.

GOLD SMACKED DOWN AGAIN – BUT REMAINS RESILIENT

Gold seems to stutter each time the price looks to exceed $1,500, and seems to remain dependent on U.S. data and trade talk sentiment’ But we still see it as continuing to have great wealth protection potential.

China gold demand and reserves; Gold keeps bouncing back

Latest articles published this month on Sharpspixley.com website.  To read full article click on title.

CHINA GOLD DEMAND STILL WEAK BUT OFFSET BY OTHER FACTORS

Although latest Chinese SGE gold withdrawal figure is higher than a month earlier the total is well down y-o-y,, but any Chinese demand shortfall is being more than offset by ETF and central bank additions.

CHINA ADDS MORE GOLD TO RESERVES, BUT RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT

Latest figures from the Chinese central bank claim that the country added only 5.91 tonnes to its gold reserves in September, but how accurate are the Chinese figures?

GOLD KEEPS ON BOUNCING BACK TO $1,500

Yet again the gold price was knocked back down well below $1,500 by a news snippet seen as equities positive and gold negative, bu the yellow metal was relatively quick to bounce back the the $1,500 level yet again.

 

Update on Minera IRL and Ollachea

Those who have followed the trials and tribulations surrounding Peruvian junior gold miner, Minera IRL, which owns the existing Corihuarmi gold mine in Peru and the hugely prospective Ollachea gold project in the same country will be thankful that the ongoing saga may be coming to a successful end for the company.  The company is now now led by Diego Benavides – a long time director and champion of the company and who has an excellent relationship with the community around the Ollachea project whose goodwill will be an important factor in the development of a mine there.

Minera IRL is focused primarily on gold. The shares of the company are listed on the Lima Stock Exchange in Peru ( Bolsa de Valores Lima) (BVL:MIRL) and the Canadian Securities Exchange. (CSE:MIRL). The Company is in discussion with a London-based financial adviser, to help explore the options for re-listing the company in London and then advising and assisting with the listing process. (Minera IRL used to have an LSE AIM listing until it got mired in some seemingly unsavoury moves to try and wrest control by some Canadian/Peruvian individuals following the untimely death of company co-founder and driving force, Courtney Chamberlain.

Now, Minera IRL is led by a tightly knit team of experienced mining executives, engineers and geologists.

The company operates the Corihuarmi gold mine in the high Andes of central Peru, which has been in continuous production since the first quarter of 2008 but is eking out its final days as reserves are depleted, but is still producing a little over 5,000 ounces of gold a year.

Minera IRL’s flagship project is Ollachea, an advanced gold development project with high potential for reserve and resource expansion located in southern Peru. An Optimization Study to the 2012 Definitive Feasibility Study was completed in the second quarter of 2014, which outlined the presence of a robust underground mining operation. A drilling program of approximately 5,200 meters has been completed in the Minapampa Far East zone.

The company has been granted all of the significant environmental, social and construction approvals needed to build the Ollachea Gold Mine.  However the decisions necessary to move ahead were stymied by an ongoing dispute with Peruvian bank COFIDE which now seems to have ended in Minera IRL’s favour which would allow it to go ahead with the Ollachea development at last.

I am indebted to blog site Inca Kola News for keeping me up to date with the latest developments in reporting as follows:

“On Friday at 11:27pm the tribunal arbitrating on the case between Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and quasi-State bank COFIDE over the fate of the Ollachea project and the U$70m bridge loan forwarded by COFIDE to the mining company published its verdict on the case. You can read it here. The need-to-know is:
  • The tribunal has found in favour of Minera IRL and against COFIDE
  • COFIDE has been ordered to pay U$18.75m in damages, plus another U$13.96m in loss of earnings. 
  • The tribunal also struck off all interest payments due on the U$70m bridge loan due as from July 17th, which I believe comes to around U$16m. 
  • Along with another small award, the total award package comes to just over U$50m
This is a massive win for Minera IRL, be in no doubt. Just the U$32m cash award is around U$0.14 per share (C$0.17). The whole package is worth around USD 22c/share with the interest write-off included. Plus of course IRL can now get on, fund and build its mine.” 
The Ollachea Project

Minera IRL acquired an option for the Ollachea project and began exploration fieldwork in 2008. The project is located in Peru‘s southern Puno district about 250 kilometers north of Lake Titicaca, on the eastern escarpment of the Andes.

Studies demonstrated the feasibility of a low-cost underground mining operation and Minera IRL is advancing with engineering studies. A large reserve base has been delineated and on-going drilling continues to produce promising results.

Logistically, the project benefits from easy access via the new Interoceanic Highway and it has a guaranteed electricity source from the nearby San Gaban hydroelectric station. There is abundant water. The Peruvian government has approved the project‘s environmental impact study and permits for construction.

The project has strong support from local communities, in both the direct and indirect areas of influence. The Ollachea mine project is expected to become an important source of employment in the area.

The company also signed an unprecedented 30-year surface rights agreement in 2012 and as part of that long-term agreement, the Community of Ollachea will earn a 5% participation interest in the mine once it begins commercial production.

Volatile week for Gold

The time since the Labor Day holiday in the USA has seen some particularly volatile movements in precious metals prices.  My commentaries on this published on the http://www.sharpspixley.com website appear below.  Click on the titles to view full articles:

Precious metals prices underwent some heavy corrections in the past week but now seem to be picking up again, We still feel the overall trend is positive.

GOLD SEE-SAW: UP IN EUROPE, DOWN IN USA

Gold is riding something of a see-saw at the moment with positive price movement in European trade being counterbalanced by a pull-back when U.S. markets start to dominate. But overall we see the pattern as positive.

Gold ETFs, Big correction in gold, silver, pgm prices, China’s latest gold reserve figures – only a small increase

My latest articles on the http://www.sharpspixley.com website look at the goings on in precious metals markets, the rise and rise in gold ETFs and China’s not so big latest gold reserve increase.  Click on the titles to read full articles:

A WGC analysis of global gold ETFs shows that they are near levels last seen in 2012 when they were at a record. This indicates that the big money is again investing in gold amid nervousness of an equities market meltdown.

Big correction in gold, silver and platinum. Equities recover.

 Precious metals prices suffered a major correction on Thursday and Friday after flying high at the beginning of the trading week. Equities picked up strongly after major falls earlier.

China says it only adds 5.9 tonnes of gold to reserves in August

The Peoples Bank of China reports adding only 5.91 tonnes of gold to its reserves in August – the lowest monthly addition since it restarted reporting monthly gold reserve increases in December last year

 

Gold, silver, pgms – all catching fire

My initial articles on sharpspixley.com/metalsdaily.com this month look at the current strength in precious metals.  Click on the titles to read in full:

GOLD APPROACHES $1,550 AGAIN, SILVER $20, PLATINUM $1,000 –ALL STILL MOVING UP!

From being the forgotten asset segment, precious metals have caught fire in the past month and a half and ,look like they have further to run, while equities are looking vulnerable

PLATINUM COMING LATE TO THE PRECIOUS METALS PARTY

In the past week the platinum price has started to play catch-up with the other precious metals and rose around 9%. We suspect it will shortly hit $1,000 but still has a long way to go to top the current palladium or gold price.

Chinese, Russian and Swiss gold data

Three more recent articles which I have published on sharpspixley.com look at massive silver ETF and institutional buildup, latest Russian gold reserve figures, Swiss gold exports and China cutting back on gold imports.  Click on titles to view full articles:

Is Russian Central Bank reducing its gold purchases?

The latest gold reserve figure from The Russian central bank shows the addition of 9.33 tonnes of gold to the nation’s forex reserves in July, back to the lower levels seen earlier in the year. Does this indicate a trend to lower accumulations?

Swiss gold exports re-distributed as Chinese imports curtailed

There has been a drastic change in the latest destination figures for Swiss gold exports with China apparently curtailing gold imports, but the UK taking pride of place as a destination due to the rise in Gold ETF deposits.

 

Enormous silver ETF inflows. Is it about to take off?

Massive flows of silver bullion into ETFs and Mutual Funds over past 2-3 months suggest something very positive may be afoot in future silver price movement

 

Gold stars aligning; China reserves and demand and trade war escalation impact

Four recent articles wRitten by me and published on the Sharps Pixley website.  To read the articles in full click on the titles

Gold: The Stars are all Aligning – Again

The latest issue of Grant Williams’ Things that make you go hmmm.. newsletter point to market performance parallels with that ahead of the Great Depression and other major recessions as well as other factors seen as positive for gold

Chinese 2019 gold demand still slipping but don’t panic

Latest gold withdrawal figures for July from China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange suggest that Chinese gold demand continues to falter this year, but any shortfall in demand is being counterbalanced by gains elsewhere.

China says it added 10 tonnes to gold reserves in July

The Chinese Central Bank reports adding just short of 10 tonnes of gold to reserves in July while overall Central Bank purchases remain elevated and gold ETF holdings rise.

U.S./China trade war escalation drives gold to $1,500

The apparent escalation of trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, the U.S. and China, has given a huge boost to the gold price which is hovering close to the US$1,500 level.

 

Peak gold, Fed rate cut and Palladium

Three of my recent articles published on the Sharps Pixley/Metals Daily websites

Peak gold continues to be elusive– WGC

The latest Gold Demand Trends report from the World Gold Council covering Q2 2019 shows that global gold supply is still rising despite many commentators suggesting we are already reaching/have already reached ‘Peak Gold’.

Has palladium had its day in the sun?

While gold has seen a decent price rise, palladium has seem something of a price collapse to below that of the yellow metal. Will it recover to be worth more than gold again?

Gold and silver dive on less downbeat Fed but recover fast

The U.S. Fed decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as ‘insurance’ and a more upbeat outlook in Fed Chair Powell’s subsequent statement saw all thee precious metal prices marked down sharply. – but for gold and silver not for long.

 

Personal Views on Brexit

This is a bit of a departure from the normal subjects on this site – Precious Metals – although the  eventual outcome, one way or the other, of the UK’s Brexit dilemma may have a, perhaps brief, impact on prices.  Personally I’m a Remainer turned Leaver convinced that the ultimate outcome of a departure from the restrictions imposed on the UK by EU rules and regulations will be beneficial – and I also think that there’s a good chance that the EU will implode anyway within the next few years with, or without, Brexit.

I have penned a longish piece on why I now feel positively towards a deal, or no-deal, Brexit which has just been published on the South African-based business website, Biznews,com run by Alec Hogg who I used to work for when he owned and ran Moneyweb.  Moneyweb is a largely South African business website which had spawned Mineweb – a very international website on global mining investment – probably the leading global mining website at the time.  I was employed to manage and edit this latter site which I did for some years until Alec lost control of that business and the subsequent policy change by the new owners of Mineweb to withdraw from its international focus to what it is today – just a South African focused ancillary to the current Moneyweb.  This did not appeal to me so I switched my writing to this site, and to Sharps Pixley and US Gold Bureau where my articles on Precious Metals now appear,

I asked Alec if he would be willing to publish my Brexit views because the subject matter does not fit in with Sharps Pixley or US Gold Bureau, and Biznews has a far wider, and broader,  readership than lawrieongold – even in the UK.  And he kindly welcomed the suggestion – so here’s a link to the full article as it appears on Biznews – https://www.biznews.com/global-citizen/2019/07/28/lawrie-williams-brexit-boris-leave.

Whether you agree, or disagree with my arguments I hope you enjoy reading it.

Silver picking up steam

My latest silver post on sharpspixley.com/metalsdaily.com:  Relevant because of silver’s latest surge but slightly outdated already in that silver, having stagnated fir a long time with the Gold:Silver ratio climbing to over 93, has seen it come back down to 87 meaning that the metal price has hugely outperformed gold over the past few days.  Also, not mentioned in the article is the fact that there have been enormous inflows into the SLV silver ETF over the past month which suggests some of the big players may well have anticipated a silver lift-off – if indeed they haven’t been directly responsible for it.  Click on the title to read full article:

SILVER PICKING UP STEAM AS GOLD BURSTS UPWARDS

18 Jul 2019 – Silver had been the poorest performer among the precious metals, but this week, as gold has also seen something of a renewed surge, silver has been picking up nicely with the GSR coming down a few points at long last

 

Gold’s bounce, disappointing silver, China gold reserves and demand, Silver Top 20, gold bullish amid headwinds

As regular readers of lawrieongold will know, nowadays I am primarily publishing my articles on the Sharps Pixley /Metals Daily’s websites rather than here on this site.  Links to my most recent articles follow:

GOLD BOUNCES BACK BUT SILVER STILL DISAPPOINTS – FOR NOW

13 Jul 2019 – Comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell confirming the likelihood of a rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting have given the gold price a bit of a boost, but silver continues to disappoint, But for how long?

CHINA CONTINUES TO ADD TO ITS GOLD RESERVES – BUT AT LOWER RATE M/M

09 Jul 2019 – The Chinese Central Bank has announced it added 10.26 tonnes of gold to its forex reserves in June – a lower level than the prior two months’ additions. Total global Central Bank accumulations are already up 73% this year according to the WGC.

WORLD TOP 20 SILVER PRODUCERS AND METAL’S PRICE PROSPECTS

09 Jul 2019 – Even though it saw a 3% production decline for silver last year,but still reckons on a supply surplus, UK precious metals consultancy is marginally bullish on the metals price prospects in H2. Top 20 silver producers tabulated.

2019 H1 China gold demand lowest for five years

08 Jul 2019 – June gold withdrawal figures out of the SGE show that the downturn in Chinese gold demand is still slipping compared with the previous 2 years – and hugely below that seen in the record 2015 year

Gold price faces some headwinds but prospects remains bullish

07 Jul 2019 – Gold and silver prices were brought back sharply following the Independence Day holiday in the U.S. closing the week below $1,400 and $15 respectively, but we anticipate the latest setbacks to be shortlived.

My initial July gold and silver articles on Sharps Pixley websites

The gold price started July positively, silver rather less so and my initial takes on this, as published on the http://www.sharpspixley.com Metals Daily website are linked below.  Note the dates of the articles.  Gold and silver may have performed a little differently (positively in gold’s case) since the articles were written. Click on the titles to read in full:

Gold catches another wave ahead of U.S. holiday

04 Jul 2019 – The gold price moved sharply upwards over $1.400 on Tuesday and remains above that level for the Independence Day holiday. Will prices move on further once th holiday is over next week? Silver, though, remains muted

Silver should be good to go

03 Jul 2019 – Silver has been the weak link in the precious metals chain, but is should start to play catch-up alongside a booming gold price’

 Gold: What a difference a month makes

01 Jul 2019 – June saw the gold price increase by around $100, and more at one time, before falling $30-40 back after various accords at the G20 meeting. What will happen now?

 

Swiss gold exports, Indian imports, GLD massive addition, Russian and Chinese gold reserves – my recent Sharps Pixley articles

I may be winding down the lawrieongold site as far as original articles are concerned, but I am still writing on precious metals – primarily for the Sharps Pixley/Metals Daily site.  My most recent articles are linked below.  To read them in full click on the titles:

Swiss gold exports – India surges back on top in May

25 Jun 2019 – The latest Swiss gold export figures for May see India regaining its place as comfortably the leading recipient and over 80% of Swiss gold exports still heading for Asian and Middle Eastern markets

GLD adds massive 35 tonnes of gold Friday

24 Jun 2019 – As an indicator of a massive change in investor sentiment towards gold, Fridays 35 tonne increase in the GLD holding stands out, while silver’s continuing underperformance could make it a bargain buy

Gold tops $1,400, falls back but recovering

21 Jun 2019 – The gold price shot past $1,400 in overnight trade before falling back nearly $20 this morning. but in European trade gradually made up much of its lost ground again. Can it close the week above $1,400?

Russian gold purchases slowing? – 6.22 tonnes in May

21 Jun 2019 – In May the Russian Central Bank reports adding 200,000 ounces (6.22 tonnes) of gold to its reserves – well below the levels reported for the three months previous, but whether tis represents a slowing down of gold accumulations is too early to tell.

Can gold’s breakout be sustained?

20 Jun 2019 – Statements from the U.S. Fed, the ECB and a tweel from the U.S. President all combined to give precious metals a sharp price boost. Are the new levels, and a likely increase in expectations for the second half of the year, sustainable?

Gold at $1,350 and silver at $15 – what now?

14 Jun 2019 – The gold price briefly rose back above $1,350 – indeed it even touched $1,360 – before being brought back down at one time to below $1,340. The rise was due to, increasing U.S/Iran tensions – but what next

China upping the ante in gold reserves

11 Jun 2019 – The Chinese central bank reports having added 15.86 tonnes of gold to its reserves in May – the highest level so far in its current spate of reporting apparent monthly increases.

 

China gold reserves and gold’s likelihood of a strong H2. My latest posts on sharpspixley.com

My two latest posts on sharpspixley.com.  Click on the titles to read in full.

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: CHINA UPPING THE ANTE IN GOLD RESERVES

The Chinese central bank reports having added 15.86 tonnes of gold to its reserves in May – the highest level so far in its current spate of reporting apparent monthly increases.

LAWRIE WILLIAMS:; GOLD COULD HAVE AN EXTREMELY GOOD H2 – MURENBEELD

The latest Gold Monitor from Murenbeeld & Co suggests that the dollar may have peaked and that there are a number of factors out there that are looking to be gold positive for 2019 H2 and 2020

Sharps Pixley back on line and Gold, GLD and Palladium article updates

After a couple of days where the Sharps Pixley site went offline following an attempted hack, I can report that it is now up and running again and my future articles will find a home there rather than here.  However I will continue to publish articles of interest here as well as occasional links to articles on Sharps Pixley.

Meanwhile I did publish a couple of articles here when the Sharps Pixley site was down – and I have now reposted them on Sharps Pixley with some minor updates.  Links to the updated versions may be accessed by clicking on the links below:

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: UPDATE: GLD TURNAROUND VERY POSITIVE FOR GOLD

06 Jun 2019 – There have been some positive inflows into GLD, the world’s largest gold ETF, since the Memorial Day holiday after around a month or so of almost-continual withdrawals. This represents an important change in sentiment towards gold.

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: UPDATED: GOLD PRICE BACK AHEAD OF PALLADIUM AGAIN

04 Jun 2019 – A rising gold price and a falling palladium one have seen gold regain its crown as the highest priced principal precious metal. Both metals do seem to have a fair amount going for them but, for now, the sentiment appears to be with gold..