A positive mood for gold in the West

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,198.70 on the 14th March after closing at $1,204.60 on the 13th March. London opened at $1,202.00 today. 

Overall the dollar was barely changed against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:

         The $: € was stronger at $1.0623: €1 from $1.0643: €1 yesterday.

         The Dollar index was hardly changed at 101.58 from 101.56 yesterday. 

         The Yen was stronger at 114.65:$1 from yesterday’s 115.06 against the dollar. 

         The Yuan was stronger at 6.9124: $1, from 6.9137: $1, yesterday. 

         The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2195: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2130: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM 1 gm Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
      2017    3    15

     2017    3    14       2017    3    13

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

272.05

271.55

/

271.47

272.49

$ equivalent 1oz @  $1: 6.9124

      $1: 6.9137

$1: 6.9051

  /

$1,223.90

$1,223.18

/

$1,221.29

$1,227.41

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle East eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

 At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was trading at 272.50 Yuan, which directly translates into $1,226.16. But allowing for the difference of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,221.16. This more than $22.46 higher than the New York close and $19.16 higher than London.

Today Shanghai is taking the gold price higher. With Asian demand buying on the fall or around the new bottom, the Chinese gold investor is not waiting for the Fed today, but buying the Technical picture.

LBMA price setting:  The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,202.25 down from yesterday’s $1,203.55.  

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,131.85 after Friday’s €1,132.01.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,201.80 and in the euro at €1,130.89 At the same time, the silver price was trading at $16.92. 

Silver Today –Silver closed at $16.88 at New York’s close yesterday against $16.97 on the 13th March.

Price Drivers

The two day FOMC meeting starts today. But U.S. gold investors are moving into gold ahead of tomorrow’s announcement.

One of the dangers of getting carried away by the early days of a new President is that markets can run too far and ahead of the realities facing that President. This may well prove to be the case with the sell-off in gold of late and the record levels the equity market is experiencing.

Over in Europe, the same may be happening in the Dutch elections where the right wing is being discounted as the next ruling party.

France is next, with Germany following in the autumn. All are waiting for Italy to send shock waves into the E.U. too.

But what is clear in Europe overall, is that the ‘winds of change’ are blowing across the E.U. and there will be a shift to the right because of the immigration problems. In themselves they are not an invasion or fundamentally damaging, but they are being taken as unacceptable. Culturally they are deeply disturbing several countries there.

In turn, as these winds are impacting, the conservative turning to the safe haven of gold is underway, if only to protect against the breaking up of the E.U. Most feel that the E.U. will hold together as will the euro, but the potential for the euro to fail in one way or another is encouraging quiet but persistent ‘safe haven’ demand for gold there.

Markets have responded quickly to Trump’s election promises, perhaps too quickly as such policies could take a year or more to implement if opposition powers don’t slow the processes down even further. Overall, in the west, the mood is positive for gold.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday saw purchases of 2.962 tonnes into the SPDR gold ETF and a purchase of o.3 of a tonne into the Gold Trust.  Their respective holdings are now at 834.989 tonnes and 197.22 tonnes. 

Yesterday saw more purchases of over 3 tonnes. After the announcement by the Fed we expect to see U.S. investors back in the gold market buying or selling through the gold ETFs. We expect to see activity and volatility to jump then. But some investors are not waiting for the Fed in the U.S. and jumping in now.

Since January 4th 2016, 231.179 tonnes of gold have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.  Since January 6th 2017 21.123 tonnes have been added to the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust.

 

 Julian D.W. Phillips – GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

 

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