Shanghai beginning to call the gold price tune?

Gold TodayGold closed in New York at $1,346.50 on Wednesday after Tuesday’s close at $1,346.10.  London opened at $1,352.

    • The $: € was very weak at $1.1329 from $1.1262.
    • The dollar index was weak at 94.35 from 94.96 Wednesday.
    • The Yen was stronger at 100.08 from Wednesday’s 100.76 against the dollar.
    • The Yuan was slightly stronger at 6.6324 from 6.6330 Wednesday.

 

  • The Pound Sterling was slightly stronger at $1.3144 up from Wednesday’s $1.3014.

 

Yuan Gold Fix

Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM Benchmark Price PM
2016  08  18

2016  08  17

SHAU

SHAU

288.80

287.60

288.84

287.39

Dollar equivalent @ $1: 6.6324

$1: 6.6330

$1,354.36

$1,348.61

$1,354.55

$1,347.63

In almost a repeat of yesterday Shanghai was much higher than New York’s closing but London decided to walk its own road opening lower at $1,352. Dollar weakness continues heavily, as seen in the dollar index as well as against the euro. We are in a time when a large number of experts are calling the dollar higher, but it consistently does the reverse.

With emerging and higher risk nations offering higher yields, their currencies are strengthening and will continue to do so until we do actually see a rate hike [which we don’t expect until next year].

LBMA price setting:  $1,347.10 after Wednesday 17th August’s $1,342.75.

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,188.60 down €3.05 from Wednesday’s €1,191.65.

Ahead of the opening in New York the gold price stood at $1,350.15 and in the euro at €1,191.3.  

Silver Today –The silver price closed in New York at $19.66 on Wednesday down from $19.80 on Tuesday.  Ahead of New York’s opening the price was trading at $19.75.

Price Drivers

Yesterday saw heavy sales from the U.S. gold ETFs and this pulled New York prices down a little. Overnight saw prices rise in Shanghai which is leading the way lately, in setting gold prices.

Is it right to describe higher prices in Shanghai as a premium over New York/London’s prices or should we say that New York is trading at a discount to Shanghai?

The physical statistics says the second, but COMEX, until recently, led the way on gold prices. We are watching carefully to see if the pattern persists and if global markets take the lead in gold prices from Shanghai. This would mean that pricing power is moving to Shanghai. This is significant in that it alters the factors influencing the gold price, making them more globally oriented, as opposed to U.S. oriented. It would then make for a more believable gold price, both in monetary terms and physical terms.

The Fed Minutes described a split in the FOMC, but where the ‘hawks’ sat was on the non-voting side and the ‘doves’, led by Janet Yellen, sat on the voting side. The factors affecting the ‘doves’ were global influences as well as productivity, alongside wages. We can see that while the U.S. economy appears solid, the growth is low and not accompanied by a ‘healthy’ level of inflation. Hence the market views a rate hike in September with only a 21% likelihood and a hike early next year at a 50% likelihood. This prospect heightens the impact a rate hike will have on all global financial markets.

Gold ETFs – In New York on Tuesday there were sales of 4.453 tonnes from the SPDR gold ETF (GLD) but no change in the holdings of the Gold Trust (IAU). This left their respective holdings at 957.775 tonnes and 223.85 tonnes.

Silver –Silver prices should continue around current levels until there is a breakout in the gold price, one way or the other.

Julian D.W. Phillips

GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance 

 

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