Gold firms after fall to support again

Gold TodayGold closed in New York at $1,335.30 on Monday after Friday’s close at $1,336.40.  London opened at $1,333.

    • The $: € was up at $1.1092 from $1.1096.
    • The dollar index rose to 96.35 from 95.30 Monday.
    • The Yen was slightly stronger at 102.32 from Monday’s 102.41 against the dollar.
    • The Yuan was weaker at 6.6614 from 6.6616 Monday.

 

  • The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2990 down from Monday’s $1.3042.

 

Yuan Gold Fix

Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM Benchmark Price PM
2016  08  9

2016  08  8

SHAU

SHAU

286.29

286.78

285.87

286.54

Dollar equivalent @ $1: 6.6615

$1: 6.6614

$1,336.73

$1,339.00

$1,334.77

$1,337.88

With the exception of the pound sterling, which continues to weaken substantially, all other currencies were stable in the day.

We note that the thinking in the Chinese media is that the Yuan will continue to drop. Official policy likes to be broadcast in the media, so we expect the falls to continue towards 7.00 to the U.S. dollar.

It is important to note that Chinese demand for gold is down when one looks at the withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

But we note two factors; first this is not due to a fall-off in the growth of the Chinese middle classes, which continue to burgeon, as is evidenced by auto demand in the country and secondly that Shanghai gold prices are not driving global gold prices at the moment.  Likewise Indian demand!

We cannot see this happening until gold availability in London falls to the point that liquidity drops to almost critical levels. Certainly London’s liquidity levels have reduced substantially over the last two years. If U.S. demand combines with Asian demand we will see a change in pricing power.

LBMA price setting:  $1,332.90 after Monday 9th August’s $1,330.00.

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,202.11 up €2.07 from Monday’s €1,200.04.

Ahead of the opening in New York the gold price stood at $1,333.55 and in the euro at €1,203.08.   Post opening gold and silver both gained in strength with gold moving above $1,340.

Silver Today –The silver price closed in New York at $19.73 on Monday up from $19.70 on Friday.  Ahead of New York’s opening the price was trading at $19.63.

Price Drivers

Gold and silver held remarkably steady yesterday in the face of a large sale of gold from the SPDR gold ETF. The gold price continues to rest on support and with the gold season nearly on us the physical market, at least will see demand grow significantly. In the U.S. fears of a global slowdown [and low productivity] affecting the U.S. economy and the large number of potential banking and debt crises that are more than likely, the atmosphere for gold continues to be positive.

A President Trump has announced he will institute a cutback in Corporate Tax to 15% that should be sufficient to encourage many non-manufacturing companies to return to the U.S. Why not manufacturing? Because the wage differentials between U.S. wages and developing countries wages, remains substantial!  But Trump certainly knows how to press the buttons of the electorate. We can only reflect that the ridicule heaped on him as a Republican Presidential Candidate did not stop him, so the ridicule we now see for him may follow the same road.

Gold ETFs – In New York on Monday there were sales of 6.531 tonnes sold from the SPDR gold ETF but nothing from or to the Gold Trust. This left their respective holdings at 973.805 tonnes and 220.40 tonnes.

Since January 4th this year, the holdings of these two gold ETFs have risen by 396.59 tonnes.

Silver –Silver prices have been more stable than gold in the last day, but this is simply marking time before gold moves again.

Julian D.W. Phillips

GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance [Gold Storage geared to avoid its confiscation]

 

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