Trump takes lead in U.S. polls. Gold may benefit if lead continues

For those who believe that the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President in November is as unlikely as a vote for the UK was to leave the EU – be afraid, be very afraid!  The latest survey of opinion polls in the USA puts the Donald in the lead.  Here are a couple of screenshots from U.S. website realclearpolitics.com, which monitors the latest opinion polls, which show a Trump surge into the lead over Democrat rival Hillary Clinton, following the end of the Republican National Convention and the beginning of the Democratic one.

trumpvclinttab

trumpvclintchart

For better clarity in the above chart and table, and for updates click on: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/ 

Now there are still a little over three months to go before the US Presidential Election takes place  on November 8th, but for the anti-Trump sector of the US electorate  – which has some  strong demographic parallels with the anti-Brexit voters in the UK, the latest trends have to be extremely worrying.  Although as the UK learnt, polls can turn out to be very wrong in a strongly divided nation.  And this forthcoming US Presidential election is perhaps the most politically divisive yet.

By all logic, Donald Trump’s bombastic campaigning statements should have alienated Women, Blacks and Hispanics alongside died-in-the-wool Democrats which would suggest he is unelectable.  But, in Hillary Clinton, the Democrats have chosen a candidate who is anathema to virtually all Republicans of any gender or race, and may well prove to be equally unpopular with a significant sector of voters who would normally support the Democrat ticket – primarily male blue collar and working class voters.  The US may have been ready for a black leader in President Obama, but are they ready for a woman?

So, as we noted here pre the Brexit vote in the UK, there was sufficient underlying anti-EU feeling in the country to make the eventual outcome decidedly uncertain.  There thus may well be sufficient underlying anti-Hillary sentiment in the US, fuelled by an ongoing, and effective, Republican campaign casting doubts on Hillary Clinton’s financial dealings and past decisions – including the hugely contentious use of her private email account to handle matters of national security – as to her suitability to occupy the Oval office.

Three months is an enormously long time in politics – particularly in one of the most vicious Presidential campaigns ever.  But some mud will undoubtedly stick and the eventual  outcome may well depend on which of the contenders it sticks to most!

As election day approaches, and if the polls still suggest a close race – and in particular if they continue to put Trump in the lead – one should probably expect a strong safe haven move into gold.  The Donald is believed to favour gold and may also be more inclined to review the position of the U.S. Federal Reserve and its policies.  It could be a very interesting three months ahead.

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