Gold & Silver retreat to support ahead of Brexit vote

Gold Today –Gold closed in New York at $1,298.40 up $16.70 on Friday breaking up to resistance before pulling back, falling to $1,282 support at London’s opening this morning.

The $: € moved slightly lower to $1.1279 from Friday’s $1.1254 over the weekend. The dollar index moved to 93.71 down from 94.38.

Yuan Gold Fix

Trade Date Contract Benchmark Price AM Benchmark Price PM
2016  06  20

2016  06  17

SHAU

SHAU

272.42

271.52

272.19

272.38

Dollar equivalent @ $1: 6.5810

$1: 6.5995

$1,287.53

$1,279.68

$1,286.44

$1,283.74

Shanghai reacted to the mood of London late on Friday, this morning, as the news about the U.K. and the murdered British M.P. began to be reflected in the polls and a “Brexit” seems unlikely today.

We expect volatility this week and swings back and forth as different polls tell different tales. $1,280 continues to hold. The Technical picture continues to point higher despite the daily picture pointing to a narrowing trading range.

Physical gold buying continued strongly in the U.S. on Friday [see below].

Global financial markets are far more than just about potential ‘Brexit’. A great danger for investors and traders is to be caught up in short-term emotional swings.  At the time they seem overwhelming, but inevitably the main issues underlying prices return to adjust markets. We expect the same to be true not just in this week, but next week too.  The Technical picture will have a stronger influence than usual particularly in the next fortnight.

LBMA price setting:  $1,283.25 down from Friday 17th June’s $1,284.50.

The gold price in the euro was set at €1,132.51 down from Friday’s €1,141.12.

Ahead of New York’s opening, the gold price was trading at $1,280.30 and in the euro at €1,129.61.

Silver Today –The silver price closed in New York on Thursday at $17.46, up from Thursday’s $17.17 a rise of 29 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening the silver price stood at $17.35.

Price Drivers

The murder of the British MP, Jo Cox,  last week caused a short term, dealer markdown of prices in the gold and silver markets today, at the opening in London. The gold price remains on support and should begin to rise across the world as the respectful sentiment currently ruling, gives way to the underlying global crises and the referendum. The world being what it is, the Brexit ‘in’ and ‘out’ campaigns will resume and the tragedy fall into the background ahead of the vote. It could still go either way. It will remain the cause of this week’s volatility in all global financial markets.

We detail the consequences on prices more, in our newsletters [website for subscription below].

Gold ETFs – On Friday the holdings of the SPDR & gold Trust rose another 5.347 tonnes as the physical buying ratcheted higher into the gold ETF, leaving its holdings at 907.879. Another 2.01 tonnes of gold bullion were added to the Gold Trust, leaving their holding at 200.41 tonnes.

Since January 4th this year, the holdings of these two gold ETFs have risen 311.521 tonnes.

Silver –Silver prices remain robust as they fell less than 1% today. This indicates a robust underlying strength that may well ride through the swings in the gold market this week. Surprisingly, we expect silver prices to be far less volatile than gold prices this week.

Julian D.W. Phillips

GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance

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