What does peak gold mean for the gold price

Herewith intro paragraphs for a new article posted by me on sharpspixley.com website

Let us say, for argument’s sake, that the latest GFMS analysis of global gold production is correct and global new mined gold production falls by around 3% in 2016 – the first such fall in around seven years.  This would see, according to GFMS estimates, output fall by a little under 100 tonnes this year.  But would this fall make much, if any, difference to real supply/demand fundamentals and to the gold price itself?

On the margins maybe, and in terms of perception, but there are other supply and demand factors out there which are arguably far more significant than a 100 tonne fall in newly mined gold.  Indeed 100 tonnes, which only represents around 2% of total global annual gold supply, could be seen as a relatively small figure in terms of overall gold flows.  Other supply elements out there have a greater effect on global availability of physical gold and also in relation to total supply, which GFMS estimates at 4,274 tonnes last year.

Let’s take purchases and sales into the major gold ETFs to start with.  These have the potential to dwarf any new mined production changes.  For example we are only one month into 2016 and the major gold ETFs saw purchases of around 2 million ounces of gold – that’s over 60 tonnes – in January alone……..

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