Gold and Silver: Like a bull waiting to charge

The New York gold price closed Friday at $1,096.80 down from $1,101.20, down $4.20. In Asia on Monday, it rose over $1,101.00 once more before London took it up to be set by the LBMA at $1,103.70 up from $1,097.65 with the dollar index higher at 99.43 up from 99.31 on Friday. The euro was down at $1.0817 from $1.0824 against the dollar. The gold price in the euro was set at €1,020.34 up from €1,014.09. Ahead of New York’s opening, the gold price was trading at $1,105.00 and in the euro at €1,021.54.  

The silver price in New York closed at $14.05 down 10 cents at Friday’s close.  Ahead of New York’s opening, the silver price stood at $14.20.

Price Drivers

Friday saw purchases of 2.08 tonnes into the SPDR gold ETF but nothing was added to the Gold Trust. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are now at 664.172 tonnes and at 161.82 tonnes in the Gold Trust. The persistent demand for gold from the gold ETFs in the U.S. is pushing gold up against resistance to the point that it is now breaking down that overhead resistance. The gold and silver prices are scraping the ground like a bull ready to charge, despite today seeing the rally in oil prices dissipate and oil retreating to $30 again.

This week may well prove to be a positive one for gold and silver even as the dollar is trying to reach 100 on the index. Once again we expect gold and silver to move independently of currencies.

As we move further into 2016 not only are the oil prices not yet affecting the global slowdown, but the rudderless global economy threatens several structural crises across the world. This has led to a palpable air of worry in most markets. We can see the need for crises to make politicians act in a stringent manner. Politicians cannot act simply because there is a problem, or their electorate may not forgive them. In the midst of a crisis they will then be seen as heroes when they take real action.

If this holds true we will have to wait until we see the ruptures in financial markets before they then act. But are governments, currently, capable of taking forceful action when they have failed to do so since before the ‘credit crunch’ in 2007.  

Fears of a real monetary crisis in 2016 are growing fast. Add to this the very fundamental gold market reforms on the way across the world will change the shape of the global gold market. –  The attitude of “laissez faire” that we have seen from governments since 2007 has compounded the problems and in an election year in the U.S. with the danger of a “Brexit” from the E.U. When push does come to shove, governments won’t act strongly but are likely to only take defensive action and blame others. This can only be gold and silver positive.

Silver is continues to be robust and ready to run higher.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

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