Huge YTD 2015 Chinese SGE gold demand will pass full year record in 2 weeks

Full month figures for October aren’t yet available, but announced gold withdrawals out of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) up to October 23rd have already exceeded last year’s full year total – and last year was the second highest full year ever for SGE gold deliveries.  The record year of 2013 is now in the sights and will almost certainly be surpassed within the next two weeks.  As I have predicted before a full year total of around an absolutely massive 2,600 tonnes of gold  – over 400 tonnes higher than the previous annual record figure (and amounting to some 80% of total global new mined gold output) will pass through the SGE this year.  And this is all physical gold – not paper!

SGE GOLD WITHDRAWALS – YTD AND PREVIOUS 5 FULL YEAR TOTALS

Year

SGE gold withdrawals (tonnes)

2015 (to Oct 23rd)

2,119

2014

2,102

2013

2,181

2012

1,134

2011

1,043

2010

814

Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, Sharelynx.com

We have already concluded from published export statistics from countries supplying gold to the Chinese mainland that Chinese gold imports this year are almost certainly heading for perhaps 1300 tonnes plus – a very similar figure to that suggested by China gold specialist Koos Jansen writing on www.bullionstar.com – and domestic production will probably be in the order of 480 tonnes for the full year.  Yet the principal mainstream analysts still see China’s consumption as perhaps only around 1,000 tonnes – and latest GFMS figures for Q2 even put China behind India as the world’s biggest gold consumer – although admittedly not by much.

However, the analysts seem to treat India and China totally differently in their assessments.  Indian gold consumption as they see it pretty much equates to the country’s gold import levels (perhaps they include domestic supply too but as this is only 1-2 tonnes a year this is just about irrelevant).  But Chinese consumption is put far behind its new gold supply, which we calculate as imports plus domestic gold production, equating to some 1700-1800 tonnes.  Add recycled gold into the mix and we are probably talking 2,000 tonnes or more – still well short of SGE deliveries…..

To read full article on Sharpspixley.com, click on this link

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