Gold around where it was before bear raid

On Wednesday New York closed at $1,123.80 up $15.10. The dollar was slightly stronger at $1.1111 up from $1.1144 with the dollar Index unchanged at 96.58. This morning the LBMA gold price was set at $1,117.35 up $03.55. The euro equivalent was €1,003.23 up €2.40. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in a very narrow 30 point spread around $1,117.75 and in the euro at €1,005.00.

The silver price closed at $15.52 up 18 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening today it was trading at $15.35.

While the Yuan fall is still the globe’s financial market’s focus the People’s Bank of China has made clear they are operating a “managed float” of the Yuan, allowing market forces to dictate the rate, but they will intervene if the market forces ‘brutal’ moves on the exchange rate. This is the case with the euro and the dollar too. Financial markets are stabilizing. Until the new exchange regime has settled down the PBoC will intervene should it deem it necessary.

We believe that the process has been very bullish for gold in that it has risen as the Yuan has fallen against the dollar and will continue to do so.

What has become clear in the actions of the Chinese government and central bank is that they are determined to accelerate the Yuan’s passage to a reserve currency, hopefully with the cooperation of the IMF, but if not, they will walk their own road. China is determined to become the globe’s No. 1 economy by all definitions.  With the weight of their 1.4 billion population behind them and bearing in mind the progress made already, this process appears unstoppable. With their love of gold, the gold price can only benefit over time.

We are pretty close to the levels from which the bear-raid of the last month was launched.  It seems the short positions are not profitable but close to losses and yet remain in position. What we saw yesterday was what appears to be some short covering in the SPDR gold ETF where there were purchases of 4.173 tonnes of gold. But in the Gold Trust we saw sales of 0.36 of a tonne of gold leaving the holdings of the SPDR gold ETF at 671.867 tonnes and 161.02 tonnes in the Gold Trust.  Will we see more short covering?

Silver is marking time waiting for gold to point the way.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

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