Greek bailout deal unworkable – IMF

New York closed yesterday at $1,145.10 down $4.20 with Asia and London holding it there in line with the moves in the dollar against the euro. The dollar was stronger at $1.089 up from $1.0934 against the euro with the dollar Index at 97.54 up from 97.27.  The LBMA gold price was set this morning at $1,143.00 down $2.10 again, in reaction to the rising dollar. The euro equivalent was €1,049.39 down €1.69. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,144.30 and in the euro at €1,050.54.

The silver price fell to $15.01 down 10 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.00, again.

The gold market continues to see thin trade but yesterday saw the emergence of buyers from Asia as prices in the Rupee in particular began to hit recent lows. But the gold price was shifted in line with the moves in the dollar. In the euro it remained above €1,050. Short positions are still at extremely high levels on COMEX.

We are sorry to say that our expectation that the fat lady had at last sung in the Greek tragedy is now far from correct. The IMF had stated emphatically that the deal is unworkable. The IMF cannot lend to an insolvent state. Germany has stated emphatically that Greece cannot have a ‘debt haircut’ under the rules of the E.U. nor can it have a ‘back door haircut’ by extending the debt out for a generation and with mini-interest rates.  The ECB has given funds to rescue Greece for a short while and stated emphatically that Greece’s place in the Eurozone was ‘never in question’ and that ‘debt relief is ‘uncontroversial’. This horse won’t run!

The next month should see a lot of fur flying and a Grexit is not off the table. This raises questions about the euro exchange rate, which is dominating the gold price unreasonably so. The divisions in the Troika are very deep and may take some heavy backing down for them to be resolved. For sure the deal agreed earlier this week is not a done deal.

Let’s see what Germany says today. All the world’s eyes are turning back to Greece for the next month if not years. So the gold sold into the market in the belief that the issue was resolved may well find its way back into investor’s hands? We are in important territory for gold from a Technical point of view!

As of the end of June 2015, China’s official gold reserves were 53.32 million ounces (1,658.48 tonnes), the People’s Bank of China announced today. This is an increase of only 604 tonnes since the last time the central bank updated its figures in 2009.

There were sales of 1.772 tonnes from the SPDR gold ETF and purchases of 0.36 tonnes into the Gold Trust leaving the holdings of the SPDR gold ETF at 707.878 tonnes and 167.76 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

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