Julian Phillips’ take on the apparent Greek-EU deal and its likely effects on the market.
New York closed Friday at $1,163.00 up $0.60 with Asia and London taking it down this morning to $1,160. The dollar was weaker at $1,1147 down from $1.1140 against the euro with the dollar Index at 9587 down from 96.11. The LBMA gold price was set this morning at $1,154.95 down $7.45. The euro equivalent was €1,043 13 down €4.86. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,156.80 and in the euro at €1,044.66.
The silver price rose to $15.58 up 12 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.48.
The week has started with a deal between Greece and the E.U. after a frantic weekend. For gold and silver investors the details of the deal are irrelevant. It means that Greece will not exit the euro or Eurozone and so there is no threat to either, anymore. The market is reading this as a negative for the gold and the euro. But this was the initial reaction in London. The market may be in turmoil as they settle down now. Is this the end of the threat to the euro and E.U. of Greece’s departure? We think so. But it certainly isn’t the end of the Greek drama/tragedy.
The agreement means that the attention of the monetary world will revert to the E.C.B.’s quantitative easing and the desire of the E.C.B. to see a lower euro exchange rate with the dollar. We expect that if the euro does not weaken it will be because the U.S. Treasury does not want to see a stronger dollar than it is already, but may have to, as a rate hike may now be closer, after Greece.
There appears to be an imminent deal between Iran and the U.S. so the media has led us to believe. If this does happen, then the markets should pull down the oil price strongly and keep it there for a long time and will be very bad news for “Fracking” oil production. This will be a positive for the global economy having a similar impact to a tax break. But will this feed down into the economy of the world? Overall it should.
To get a balanced perspective on all of the above for gold and silver, we remind readers that these issues have an influence on speculative activity not on gold and silver’s fundamentals. However, with speculative activity having a major impact on prices until the entry of Chinese banks and an arrival of a Yuan “Fix”, when gold and silver prices are headed towards a major shift from speculative dominance, to an Asian, more fundamentally oriented pricing than we have seen for several years. Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com