Julian Phillips’ analysis of what’s happening in the gold and silver markets, sees some very uncertain times ahead.
New York closed at $1,162.40 up $3.60 with Asia and London holding it there in a barely changed market. The dollar was weaker at $1,1107 down from $1.1033 against the euro with the dollar Index 96.11 down from 96.50. The LBMA gold price was set this morning at $1,162.40 up only $0.30. The euro equivalent was €1,038.27 down €14.69. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,160.10 and in the euro at €1,037.01.
The silver price rose to $15.46 up 32 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was also trading at $15.46.
Has Tsiprias done enough? Has he committed political suicide? Will he get the Greek Parliament’s backing? Will the E.U. feel it is enough? The German Finance Minister agrees that Greece cannot repay its current debt, but will not go with a debt write down. Better to make repayment last for 40+ more years at a miniscule interest rate, he feels. A rose by any other name? Monday will see if this issue will impact the exchange rate of the euro or not. The dollar gold price is relatively unmoved but with the euro climbing the euro price of gold is falling. Next week could prove dramatic! Certainly it looks as though, at last, there could be a resolution to the story? Markets are, on balance looking for the E.U. to accept the latest Greek offer, but we would rather wait and see. Until next week we do not see any really strong moves in currencies or precious metals.
The Chinese government’s ‘shackling’ of the Shanghai equity market is more a clash between Communism and free markets than it is of global economic concern. China had thought that it was a way of increasing wealth but did not account for speculation.
With the IMF lowering global economic growth forecasts and, in particular, that of the U.S., the potential for instability and uncertainty has increased. This takes us towards extreme times. With the Fed looking at the end of this year or next before raising interest rates, they too are keeping their heads down. What is important about these downward looking prospects is that this is all that has been achieved after 7 years of efforts to stimulate the global economy and in particular the U.S. economy. Is the global economy on a self-sustaining road forward to better times? That’s not what we are hearing. So are we at the bottom for gold and silver prices? With China aiming to have more control over the gold price and to inject the Yuan into the global monetary system there is a case to be made for this thought.