Big Greek No! So what next for the Eurozone and gold

The die is cast.  The  big No vote in the Greek referendum will lead to further negotiations but Julian Phillips in his latest market analysis reckons the EU and ECB will refuse to budge and that Greece will have already printed drachmas to replace the Euro.  

New York closed Friday at $1,167 up slightly. Asia and London took it down to $1,164. The dollar was 0.25 of a cent stronger at $1.1029 and the dollar Index was higher at 96.45 up from 95.93.  The LBMA gold price was set this morning at $1,164.25 down $4.00. The euro equivalent was €1,055.67 up €3.00. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,165.60 and in the euro at €1,056.47.

The silver price fell to $15.65 up 6 cent in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.60.

Last week we said, “Unbelievably the I.M.F. has put its foot in it! The report just issued clarifies that Greece needs to be given 40 yrs to repay its debt and needs lower interest rates and for a portion at least of its debt to be written off if it is to return to growth. Even then it will still have debt to GDP of 150%.” – It seemed that the Greeks understood this and rejected the offer from the E.U. Any negotiations going forward will undoubtedly include these, or more liberal terms for Greece from the Greek side. The E.U. just will not go along with this as the bulk of members will vote against it. We have no doubt that the new Drachmas are already printed and ready to go out to the Greek banks. The E.C.B. will wait for the political OK for it to cut off funding to the Greek banks.

By way of comparison, Argentina, is still in the midst of its debt crisis but an economic recovery, unemployment down to just over 6%, down from 22% seven years ago and using the Peso and not the U.S. dollar. So there is life after default! For gold and silver investors, it is not the Greek crisis that is the issue but the exchange rate of the euro. At first the euro dipped slightly, but with the weakest member likely to exit the E.U. it is likely to go stronger. The E.U. Finance Ministers will show the way forward tomorrow.

In China it is not the Greek issue that is causing the equity market to fall but the mess being made by the authorities in managing the ‘bull’ market. Likely the average Chinese investor is losing confidence in equity markets and staying with gold. Last week saw a huge 46.1 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange [the official gold demand figure].

On Friday there no sales or purchases  of gold from the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust.  The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 709.65 tonnes and at 167.40 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Silver is waiting for gold, which is waiting for currency reactions.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s