Greece in default but gold and silver still weak

Julian Phillips’ latest take on the post default Greek situation and its lack of any positive impact on the prices of gold and silver.

New York closed yesterday at $1,172.50 down $6.70. Asia and London held it there. The dollar was half a cent stronger at $1.1124 and the dollar Index was higher at 95.70 after being 95.24.  Then the euro started to fall again and the LBMA gold price was set this morning at $1,171.70 down $3.30. The euro equivalent was €1,057.73 up €5.81. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,170.20 and in the euro at €1,054.80.

The silver price fell to $15.72 unchanged in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.60.

Officially, Greece is in default, despite it being called, ‘in arrears’. And yet the markets remain unmoved. Greece asks for a new bailout package and is refused. Markets have ignored that. Now we expect no market action because of Greece, until the way forward [in or out of the euro and E.U.] is clear. The gold price will only move if the euro is directly affected. You can be sure that no matter how bad the balance sheet of other E.U. members look or even that of the E.C.B., we will be fed palliatives constantly in the hope that confidence in the euro will be maintained. Why should the gold price move then? Because of waning confidence and the need to turn to something that has been solid in extreme times.  Before that there is little point in reacting to every new stage of the ‘negotiations’. The gold price has told us that over the last few weeks.

What we see of greater importance is the downturn in Japan at the height of the relatively massive quantitative easing’ program we are seeing there. If this Q.E. fails then it is a condemnation of the policy. What will result is a quantity of money out there that is far greater than before within an economy that hasn’t grown in size. A cake that was the same size before the availability of money rose will simply rise in price, without producing more cakes. But as most Q.E. has been contained within the banking system, without being available to the consumer, even inflation is restrained. While we look at the market with high P.E. ratios and interest rates at record lows, many large funds are taking their money off the table now. Markets could still rise, but the quality of that investor is lower, chasing short-term profits. We quote one fund manager, “It’s clear that we are currently in an environment of frothy valuations”. We can see no good reasons for prices to rise more, but they may and increase the froth. Consequently, what does the future hold? This is what the Fed fears too!

On Tuesday there were no sales or purchases from or into the SPDR gold ETF, or the Gold Trust.  The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 711.439 tonnes and at 167.79 tonnes in the Gold Trust. Silver is looking for lower prices ahead of gold. Speculators are pressing prices down as the way of least resistance.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

 

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