Indian gold monetization plans dealt fatal blow?

Julian Phillips’ latest take on global silver and gold markets and the forces driving them

New York closed at $1,177.60 down $7.50. Asia held the price at New York’s close and then London took it down $2 at the opening. The dollar was stronger at $1.1201 up 0.60 of a cent and the dollar Index was higher at 95.20 up from 94.81.  The gold price was set this morning at $1,175.75 down $7.60. The euro equivalent was €1,049.68 down €4.86. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,177.60 and in the euro at €1,051.71.

The silver price fell to $15.83 down 37 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.90.

With a day to contemplate the new proposals from the Greek government it appears that they have been rejected by the E.U.  Indeed, Tsipras informed the media that these proposals had been rejected already. But the markets have not reacted to this yet. There is a further emergency meeting of the E.U. Finance Ministers this evening, at which their counter proposals will be pressed upon the Greeks. The E.U. have rejected more taxes on the wealthy knowing they will not be paid. From where we stand, the proposals of more taxes, in a country where tax evasion is a national sport also seem meaningless. A slow increase in the pensionable age [currently 50] may well not be seen as substantive enough. It also seemed only possible, that the Greek Parliament would support the proposals in the first place. Further demands from the E.U. may prove too much for the Parliament.

The E.U. have handed counter proposals back to Greece for today’s meeting. Tomorrow we will see the way forward [it’s hoped]. Meanwhile, currency markets seem to be marking time.

Was yesterday’s fall a result of the seeming agreement between the E.U. and Greece? We think not, but the speculators that ran at the gold and silver prices did so, thinking an agreement between the E.U. and Greece was factored into the price. The failure of the gold and silver prices to rise today tells us that Greece is not a factor. What will be a factor is a failure to reach an agreement between the two this week.

India’s plan to monetize gold inside the country has just received a mortal blow from the Reserve Bank of India, who said that banks would start to hoard gold if the scheme to monetize gold went forward. We did not think it was a starter when it was first put forward.

The Indian gold market is in quiet season still and gold demand is only reactive to lower prices.

Reports from China show that demand as measured by the Shanghai Gold Exchange remains robust. But it does appear that this demand is not being fed by either the London or the New York markets, yet, which explains the independent road the London and New York markets are walking.

There were no sales or purchases into or from the SPDR or the Gold Trust on Tuesday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 705.475 tonnes and at 167.79 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

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