China gold demand robust, India muted; Greek tragedy may be ending

Julian Phillips’ appraisal of what’s happening in the gold and silver markets.

New York closed at $1,193 down $9.10. We do not believe that this was to do with Greece. The gold price was set this morning at $1,193.70 with the dollar at $1.1354 slightly weaker than Friday and the dollar index stood at 94.19, not far different from Friday’s level. The euro equivalent was €1,051.35 down €7.55. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,193.60 and in the euro at €1,051.68.

The silver price fell to $16.10 down 10 cents in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $16.17.

The gold price was strong towards the end of last week resting above $1,200 and now on $1,190. While it is still in no-man’s land, if anything it is pointing up, but we wait to see just how the precious metal’s market is going to react if there really is a conclusion to the tragedy. As you can see from above, the gold and silver prices have fallen back to where they rose from on Thursday. Short covering rallies are usually short-lived unless other factors contribute to the rise. In line with this the month end is coming up and positions are often closed then reopened in the new month.

Today marks the day when the Greek Tragedy is concluded, so we are told in the media. Greece has forwarded another set of proposals and the media is saying a deal is most likely today. We would prefer to keep quiet and see what happens. The market in gold and silver is doing just the same and marking time before we see a strong reaction.

With Greece making these last minute proposals, the E.U. is placed in a position that if it rejects them, the E.U. will look the villain. As this is primarily a political issue the markets are really waiting to see if the fat lady really is going to sing. The re-adjustment in prices today really illustrates that it is the dollar market that is dictating prices not the Greek situation. We don’t see Greece causing an effect until a conclusion is reached.

There were no sales or purchases of gold from or into the SPDR gold ETF but a purchase of 0.78 of a tonne into the Gold Trust on Friday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 701.897 tonnes and at 167.01 tonnes in the Gold Trust.  Meanwhile, gold demand in China remains robust while demand in India is in its quiet time for the year. With urbanization continuing in India at a rapid pace, demand in this seasonally quiet time is higher than normal.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

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