Gold finding it tough to break out either way

Julian Phillips’ analysis of what is driving gold and silver prices

At the start of a new week, gold is slightly up in the euro, but barely changed in the dollar as currencies continue to dominate prices. Precious metals are barely moving as demand and supply in developed world markets remains almost balanced. Asian demand is there buying the ‘dips’ and supporting prices at current levels.

So that readers know what lays ahead in this type of situation we look at the last 18 months during which gold has essentially moved sideways. In the last week and more gold has moved in a tight range sideways, attempting to break upwards over $1,200 [at which point Asian demand wanes]. So support is strong and yet there is little enthusiasm to take it higher now. A gold affecting story minor or major will trigger a strong move and it is possible that if it holds above $1,220 the upside is significant. If it breaks down the downside is limited.

Wednesday and Thursday and Friday saw no purchases or sales into or from the SPDR Gold ETF and Gold Trust. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 715.857 tonnes and at 166.60 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Turning to the Yuan, May did not see the expected announcement on the inclusion of the Yuan in the SDR of the IMF. We were informed it would come in May but the only announcement from the IMF was that the Yuan was no longer undervalued. So what happened? We know the final agreement must come in October and for it to be a reality at the start of 2016. So does the silence speak volumes? Is the battle going on behind closed doors? If there is division, get ready for global division which will benefit gold! We must wait and see.

As to Greece, the ongoing bickering of the last week confirms a stark reality. The new government will put politics first to save their political careers. Finance Ministers outside Greece in the E.U., likewise want to save their political careers, so the repayments due this week are not accounting/banking problems but political problems. Say welcome to a default or Germany’s capitulation in June

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

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