Julian Phillips looks at the trans global economic data which has been supporting the latest run up in the gold and silver price
New York closed at $1,224.90 up $3.10 over Friday’s close. Asia took it up to $1,230. The LBMA Gold price was set at $1,228.15 up $11.85 over Friday’s level. The euro equivalent stood at €1,077.23 up €6.45 while the dollar was weaker and the euro stronger at $1.1401 up $1.1359 against the euro. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading lower in London at $1,226.60.00 and in the euro at €1,075.63.
The silver price closed at $17.53 up 10 cents on Friday’s level. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $17.57.
With the gold price well above resistance at $1,220, touching $1,230 we expect a stronger day for gold and silver. The dollar index is now at 93.60.
Confidence in the future is now waning as data out of the U.S. is contrary to the expectations markets had at the beginning of the year. And this is at a time when in the U.S. the ‘new normal’ of lower growth and potentially rising U.S. rates are kicking in. But the growth we see is not consistent with an economy that has gained traction and is moving to a robust state. What is very alarming is that if the U.S., after so much stimuli has only reached this position, any downturn will find the Fed and Lawmakers without ammunition to bring it to a robust state.
In Japan where an even more aggressive program of Q.E. is on the way economic prospects are weakening. In the Eurozone where QE is still in its early days, unless the euro falls to parity with the dollar, which is still likely, QE by itself is not going to outperform the U.S. or Japan? With Bond Yields rising, investors who went into equities for yield may retreat, bringing the equity market into the same state as the bond markets. Against such a backdrop it seems that gold and silver may have started to regain some of their luster. With markets looking vulnerable in this picture it may only take a relatively small event to trigger volatility of an ominous nature.
Which brings us to Greece, once again; ignore the politics and look at the cash and the mandate the new government was given when it was elected. The government cannot commit political suicide and there is very little cash left. A referendum is their next move or default. The default or an exit from the Eurozone could be the next event to trigger global financial market volatility, once an outcome is clear.
As prices began to look stronger on Friday there were no sales from the SPDR Gold ETF or the Gold Trust. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 723.911 tonnes and at 166.14 tonnes in the Gold Trust.