Gold could be breaking out downwards so possible price action ahead

Julian Phillips’ latest analysis of the gold and silver markets and their price drivers.

New York closed at $1,186.80 down $15.00 on Wednesday in NY. Asia again lifted the gold price to $1,189 and London held it there. The LBMA Gold price was set at $1,187.75 down $14.65. The euro equivalent stood at €1,105.71 down €14.58 while the dollar was weaker at $1.0742 against yesterday’s $1.0784. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading lower in London at $1,190.20 and in the euro at €1,107.42.

The silver price closed at $15.79 down 22 cents on Wednesday. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.90

This latest move down was still not enough to establish a clear chart pattern. We still await a bigger fall or a return to consolidation mode ahead of a big move.

The tone of global markets is disturbing as China records a greater factory output downturn than expected.  We have been fully warned that China’s growth will slow as it tries to boost the consumer part of its economy and household wealth. This means far less growth for the West by way of imports to China for infrastructure supplies, but a continued drawing off of wealth from the developed world, as China’s products compete effectively. Against lower growth and record low interest rates we see booming equity, bond and housing markets, implying they are in ‘bubble territory’ as global growth does not warrant such high market levels. The dollar index rose to 98.16 before slipping to 97.94 with a weaker euro at $1.0746.  Gold is trying to break out of its consolidation mode downwards, so we may well see more action in the price today.

There were no purchases or sales of gold into the SPDR gold E.T.F. or the Gold Trust on Wednesday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 742.347 tonnes and at 165.58 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

The media’s tone on Greece is moving to a default being a certainty. If you have known someone who went broke you will understand the mentality that is being seen in Greece, where local governments are refusing to hand their funds over to central government for the payment of the next installment of Greece’s debt. When there is no hope, financial revolution does not need to be one of action. Just refusal to act is sufficient. Then the creditors have to act. But that act is mainly angry frustration while they begin to accept that they have lost their loans. We are about to see that now.  Greece is hoping they won’t accept that loss, but pay more funds to the debtor to avoid the loss. It’s surreal, but it’s life – and gold positive!

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

 

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