Gold price pattern shows strong underlying strength

Julian Phillips sees strong underlying strength in the gold price as short positions are being unwound.

New York closed yesterday at $1,204.20 up $20.00 from the previous day’s NY close. Asia lifted it to $1,205.00, but London pulled it back to $1,202.60 ahead of the LBMA Gold price setting. The LBMA Gold price was set at $1,201.50 up $20.25. The euro equivalent stood at €1,097.92 up €12.99. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,204.30 and in the euro at €1,112.21.

The silver price closed at $16.96 up 31 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $16.83.

There have been no sales or purchases gold from or to the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust yesterday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 737.237 tonnes and at 164.92 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

What we did see yesterday was strong short covering of gold positions. This is significant in that the consolidation pattern we are seeing in gold shows a very strong underlying strength. It does seem that despite developed world markets persistently trying to push gold prices down, the area around $1,200 is certainly one that gold demand feels is an acceptable entry point.  This is forcing speculators, despite their determination, to accept this level. Their marauding, shorting of the market is being defeated time and time again. When they decide that there are more profits to be made on the long side, like yesterday, they will change tack to long positions,

The dollar was weaker yesterday falling from $1.0745 to $1.0816 and the dollar index at 97.82 down from 98.34 yesterday.

It is almost certain now that an Iranian deal is about to be announced as the talks have been extended yet again. The points of difference are apparently not sufficient to abandon the talks. For gold investors, the impact on the oil price will be the focus. Yet it will take time before Iran can make a new heavy impact on the oil market. Currently, it is selling oil to China easily, but the global markets will see a discounting of the future by speculators. In further conversations with oil experts we are told that the impact on the oil price will not be so great. Consequently, we no longer see the oil price having a market downward or upward impact on the gold price.

It is a holiday in India today and tomorrow. Of more importance than this holiday for gold demand, is the coming Akshaya Tritiya holiday on the 21st April.  Indian demand overall remains very strong.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

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