Weakening dollar sees strengthening gold price

AIIB implications and the latest Greek developments as it tries to avoid default are among the geopolitical factors discussed by Julian Phillips in his market comment on a day when the gold price may be consolidating above the $1190 level.

New York closed yesterday at $1,190.60 up $7.40. Asia held it $4 below that level before London opened, where it was lifted back up to $1,191.10 ahead of the “LBMA Gold price”. This morning the “LBMA gold price” was set at $1,193.25 up $11.85 and in the euro equivalent of €1,086.75 up €1. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,193.60 and in the euro at €1,087.36.

The silver price closed at $17.06 up 33 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $17.02.  Silver is currently showing more strength than gold (which can be expected when the gold price is rising.)

There were no sales or purchases of gold from or to the SPDR gold ETF of or into or from the Gold Trust on Monday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 744.401 tonnes and at 164.71 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

As gold approaches resistance at $1,200 we expect the price to consolidate and either build up strength for an assault on that price or turn down again. The $1,200 level is an important psychological level for gold now.

The dollar continues to retreat with the dollar index dropping to 96.74. The euro is currently standing at $1.0981 after reports that Germany is recovering well, taking the ‘average’ Eurozone growth higher to a recovery, moving forward. Nevertheless, such an average is not a fair reflection of what is going on in the E.U. as its separate member states are not faring well in the southern part of the E.U. The factors that are weakening the euro are still in place [EU QE] and intended to keep the euro weak going forward.

The U.S. meanwhile is starting to howl over a strong dollar. But the dollar appears to have peaked and has weakened by 4 points on the index in the last week, after rising the same amount the week before. Bearing in mind that the dollar remains very strong, up from a dollar index of 72 in the last year, it is hurting the U.S. economy. But a fall in the dollar is proving gold positive now (at least in dollar terms!)

The widening of support for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is seeing Canada now join, leaving only the U.S. and Japan amongst the major nations not joining. This is interesting particularly as the IMF is reviewing the composition of its currency the Special Drawing Right later this year.  Any visible opposition by the U.S. to the AIIB could indicate opposition to the Yuan being included as one of the currencies against which it is measured. This would be gold positive!

In the ongoing Greek tragedy, Greece will list more specifically its intended reforms by the end of this week.  The question is, “Can they implement them effectively?” The ‘run’ on Greek banks continues while we wait.  Merkel is trying hard to slow the acrimony between the two nations, but it seems that this is not going away.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com

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